# x402-factory Blended Prediction Market Probability

> x402-factory Blended Prediction Market Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns a liquidity-weighted blended probability for a canonical prediction market slug across Kalshi and Polymarket, with per-venue breakdowns, cross-venue divergence, and 1-hour price move.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-blended-prediction-market-probability-ea436d60
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_nBLWNMXcAM8Wz1_T_ayOZ

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-blended-prediction-market-probability-ea436d60
```

Example prompt: What's the current blended probability for the prediction market slug 'us-recession-2025' — show me how Kalshi and Polymarket compare and whether it's moved in the last hour?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a single authoritative probability estimate for a named prediction market event, especially when you want cross-venue consensus or want to detect arbitrage divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket. Prefer this over venue-specific endpoints when you want a liquidity-weighted blended view rather than raw per-venue odds. Use it after finding a slug via /v1/probability/search.

## Known failure modes

- 410 RESOLVED — market has already resolved, response includes the outcome
- 404 Not Found — slug does not match any known market; use /v1/probability/search to find valid slugs
- 402 Payment Required — x402 micropayment not provided or failed
- 400 Bad Request — slug format invalid (must match ^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$)
- 503/timeout — upstream venue APIs (Kalshi or Polymarket) temporarily unavailable
- Single-venue response — only one venue has data for this slug, blend is one-sided

## How this service works

Blended event probability across Kalshi and Polymarket for one market — Liquidity-weighted blend of venue implied probabilities for a canonical market slug, with per-venue detail, cross-venue divergence, and the last 1h move. Resolved markets return 410 RESOLVED with the outcome. Find slugs via /v1/probability/search.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with: the canonical question text, a blended liquidity-weighted probability (0-1), an array of per-venue records (venue name, market ID, implied probability, 24h USD volume, liquidity score), the cross-venue divergence (0-1), the last 1-hour price move, resolution date, and a summary of resolution criteria. Resolved markets return HTTP 410 GONE with the outcome.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "pathParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "slug"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "slug": {
       "type": "string",
       "pattern": "^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"
      }
     }
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [],
     "properties": {
      "venue": {
       "enum": [
        "kalshi",
        "polymarket",
        "blend"
       ],
       "type": "string",
       "default": "blend"
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "data",
      "meta"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "data": {
       "type": "object",
       "required": [
        "slug",
        "question",
        "probability",
        "per_venue",
        "divergence",
        "category",
        "resolution_date",
        "resolution_criteria_summary",
        "last_move_1h"
       ],
       "properties": {
        "slug": {
         "type": "string"
        },
        "category": {
         "type": "string"
        },
        "question": {
         "type": "string"
        },
        "per_venue": {
         "type": "array",
         "items": {
          "type": "object",
          "required": [
           "venue",
           "market_id",
           "implied_p",
           "volume_24h_usd",
           "liquidity_score"
          ],
          "properties": {
           "venue": {
            "enum": [
             "kalshi",
             "polymarket"
            ],
            "type": "string"
           },
           "implied_p": {
            "type": "number",
            "maximum": 1,
            "minimum": 0
           },
           "market_id": {
            "type": "string"
           },
           "volume_24h_usd": {
            "type": "number"
           },
           "liquidity_score": {
            "type": "number",
            "maximum": 1,
            "minimum": 0
           }
          },
          "additionalProperties": false
      
… (truncated)
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-blended-prediction-market-probability-ea436d60/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)