# x402-factory ETH Above $5K EOY Prediction Market Probability

> x402-factory ETH Above $5K EOY Prediction Market Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns live prediction-market probability that Ethereum will close above $5,000 at year-end, aggregated across venues like Polymarket and Kalshi.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/eth-above-5k-eoy
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-eth-above-5k-eoy-prediction-market-probability-c6e5ff13
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_K_qIcR-kp-UehFdWM6UM-

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-eth-above-5k-eoy-prediction-market-probability-c6e5ff13
```

Example prompt: What are the current prediction market odds that Ethereum closes above $5,000 at year-end — pull the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a single, real-time aggregated probability for ETH's year-end price from prediction markets, especially when you want cross-venue comparison (Polymarket vs Kalshi) and liquidity metadata in one call. Prefer this over scraping individual prediction market sites or using price-feed APIs that only give spot prices rather than market-implied probabilities.

## Known failure modes

- 402 Payment Required if no X-PAYMENT header is provided — response contains payment requirements for USDC on Base
- Payment amount or token mismatch returns payment error
- Market may temporarily be unavailable if upstream prediction market venues are down
- Stale data if upstream liquidity is low or venue is paused

## How this service works

Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.

## Output

A JSON object containing the aggregated implied probability (0-1 scale) that ETH closes above $5,000 at year-end, per-venue breakdowns (Polymarket, Kalshi) with individual implied probabilities, 24-hour USD volume, and liquidity scores, plus the 1-hour price move, resolution date, divergence between venues, and metadata including data freshness (realtime) and a unique request ID.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "ethereum-above-5k-2026-12",
   "topic": "eth-above-5k-eoy",
   "category": "crypto",
   "question": "Will Ethereum close 2026 above $5,000?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.3988,
     "market_id": "ethereum-above-5k-2026-12",
     "volume_24h_usd": 179329.65,
     "liquidity_score": 0.918
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.3988,
   "current_slug": "ethereum-above-5k-2026-12",
   "last_move_1h": 0.005,
   "topic_question": "Will Ethereum trade above $5k at year end?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if ETH/USD trades above $5,000 at the Dec 31 close reference."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.eth-above-5k-eoy",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/eth-above-5k-eoy",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.086Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-eth-above-5k-eoy-prediction-market-probability-c6e5ff13/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)