# x402-factory Fed Chair Change Evergreen Probability

> x402-factory Fed Chair Change Evergreen Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).

Returns the live consensus probability that the Fed chair will change this year, auto-rolling to the next annual instance on resolution.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/fed-chair-change-this-year
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-13
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-fed-chair-change-evergreen-probability-65ff9b09
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_f4Emso1v__CI21H6Gvhqs

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-fed-chair-change-evergreen-probability-65ff9b09
```

Example prompt: What's the current market probability that the Fed chair will change this year — and how do Kalshi and Polymarket compare on it?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a single, always-current, auto-rolling URL for the Fed chair change question without manually tracking which yearly contract is active. Prefer it over querying Kalshi or Polymarket directly when you want a pre-aggregated cross-venue consensus with divergence signals and automatic roll-forward on resolution.

## Known failure modes

- No active market found for the current year — endpoint may return a 404 or empty data if the underlying market has not yet been created for the new year
- Stale data if upstream venues (Kalshi, Polymarket) are temporarily unavailable
- Payment required (402) if x402 micropayment header is missing or insufficient
- High divergence between venues may indicate low liquidity on one side, reducing reliability of the consensus probability

## How this service works

Live probability: Will the Fed chair change this year? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will the Fed chair change this year? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with a consensus probability (0–1) for the Fed chair changing this year, per-venue breakdown from Kalshi and Polymarket (implied probability, 24h volume, liquidity score), cross-venue divergence, last 1-hour probability move, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, the current market slug, and the timestamp at which the question rolls to the next annual instance.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "fed-chair-replaced-2026",
   "topic": "fed-chair-change-this-year",
   "category": "economics",
   "question": "Will the Fed chair be replaced or step down in 2026?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.0783,
     "market_id": "fed-chair-replaced-2026",
     "volume_24h_usd": 54305.26,
     "liquidity_score": 0.839
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.0783,
   "current_slug": "fed-chair-replaced-2026",
   "last_move_1h": -0.0003,
   "topic_question": "Will the Fed chair change this year?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve chair leaves office for any reason during 2026."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.fed-chair-change-this-year",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/fed-chair-change-this-year",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.087Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-fed-chair-change-evergreen-probability-65ff9b09/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)