# x402-factory Fed Next FOMC Meeting Rate Hike Probability

> x402-factory Fed Next FOMC Meeting Rate Hike Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).

Returns the live market-implied probability that the Fed will hike rates at its next FOMC meeting, with auto-rolling to the current instance and cross-venue aggregation.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/fed-next-meeting-hike
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-13
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-fed-next-fomc-meeting-rate-hike-probability-3a81bfbd
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_1uFy-jl2j6o_G-wO6UlLk

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-fed-next-fomc-meeting-rate-hike-probability-3a81bfbd
```

Example prompt: What are the current market odds of the Fed hiking rates at the next FOMC meeting — and has the probability moved much in the last hour?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a single, always-current probability estimate for the next Fed rate hike without having to look up or manage the specific market slug for each FOMC cycle. It is ideal for macro dashboards, automated briefing agents, and alert systems that need the Fed hike probability on demand without tracking individual market lifecycles. Prefer this over direct Kalshi or Polymarket APIs when you want cross-venue aggregation and divergence in one call.

## Known failure modes

- No active FOMC market available — returns stale or null probability if between resolution and next market creation
- Payment failure — $0.02 USDC x402 payment not accepted, returns 402 Payment Required
- Venue data unavailable — one or both of Kalshi/Polymarket data feeds down, resulting in partial per_venue array
- Rate limiting — too many requests in a short window returns 429

## How this service works

Live probability: Will the Fed hike rates at its next FOMC meeting? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will the Fed hike rates at its next FOMC meeting? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with an aggregated probability (0–1) of a Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, per-venue breakdown from Kalshi and Polymarket (each with implied probability, 24h volume, and liquidity score), cross-venue divergence, 1-hour probability change, current market slug, resolution date, when the evergreen URL will roll forward to the next meeting, and a plain-language summary of resolution criteria.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "fed-hike-september-2026",
   "topic": "fed-next-meeting-hike",
   "category": "economics",
   "question": "Will the Fed raise rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "kalshi",
     "implied_p": 0.0488,
     "market_id": "KXFEDHIKESEPTEMB",
     "volume_24h_usd": 80940.75,
     "liquidity_score": 0.86
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.0488,
   "current_slug": "fed-hike-september-2026",
   "last_move_1h": -0.0048,
   "topic_question": "Will the Fed hike rates at its next FOMC meeting?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-09-16",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is raised at the Sep 15–16 meeting."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.fed-next-meeting-hike",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/fed-next-meeting-hike",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.088Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-fed-next-fomc-meeting-rate-hike-probability-3a81bfbd/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)