# x402-factory FOMC Dot Plot Median Shift Probability

> x402-factory FOMC Dot Plot Median Shift Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns live prediction-market probability that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate path, aggregated across venues like Kalshi and Polymarket.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/next-fomc-dot-shift
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-probability-07494291
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_k_I8FdoBYmEj8hflOUhQ4

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-probability-07494291
```

Example prompt: What are prediction markets currently pricing as the probability that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate path — and has the probability moved in the last hour?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a real-time, cross-venue aggregated probability specifically for the FOMC dot plot median shift — not just general Fed rate hike/cut odds. It is preferable to scraping Kalshi or Polymarket individually because it normalizes and aggregates multiple venues, computes divergence, and provides a stable evergreen URL that automatically rolls to the next meeting.

## Known failure modes

- HTTP 402 returned if no X-PAYMENT header is provided — response body contains USDC payment requirements for retry
- Stale or unavailable market data if upstream prediction market venues are offline
- Resolution date may lag if a new FOMC meeting date hasn't been listed yet and slug hasn't rolled
- Low liquidity score may indicate thin markets with wide spreads, reducing signal reliability
- Empty per_venue array if no active markets are found for the current FOMC cycle

## How this service works

Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with the aggregated probability (0–1 scale) that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate projection, per-venue breakdowns (implied probability, market ID, 24h volume in USD, liquidity score), 1-hour price move, divergence across venues, resolution date, the rolling date to the next meeting, and a plain-English resolution criteria summary. Metadata includes data freshness (realtime), sources (Kalshi, Polymarket), and a docs link.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09",
   "topic": "next-fomc-dot-shift",
   "category": "economics",
   "question": "Will the September 2026 FOMC dot plot shift its median rate path?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "kalshi",
     "implied_p": 0.5666,
     "market_id": "KXFOMCDOTPLOTMED",
     "volume_24h_usd": 21469.26,
     "liquidity_score": 0.776
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.5666,
   "current_slug": "fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09",
   "last_move_1h": -0.0033,
   "topic_question": "Will the next FOMC dot plot shift its median?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-09-16",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the SEP median federal funds projection changes from June."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.next-fomc-dot-shift",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/next-fomc-dot-shift",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.092Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-probability-07494291/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)