# x402-factory Government Shutdown This Quarter Probability

> x402-factory Government Shutdown This Quarter Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns live aggregated prediction-market probability for a US government shutdown occurring this quarter, sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/government-shutdown-this-quarter
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-government-shutdown-this-quarter-probability-8a5f0d52
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_3NyoXxJPdll5QekbsvxMX

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-government-shutdown-this-quarter-probability-8a5f0d52
```

Example prompt: What are the current prediction market odds for a US government shutdown this quarter — pull the live aggregated probability from Kalshi and Polymarket and tell me if there's any notable divergence between the two venues?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a stable, evergreen URL that always points to the current quarter's US government shutdown prediction market, aggregating cross-venue consensus from both Kalshi and Polymarket in one call. Prefer it over scraping individual exchanges directly, or over building your own aggregation — it handles venue normalization, divergence computation, and rolling slug resolution automatically. Best when you need a quick, low-cost ($0.02 USDC) machine-readable signal for political risk monitoring, macro research, or automated alerting.

## Known failure modes

- Payment not included: returns HTTP 402 with USDC payment requirements; caller must retry with X-PAYMENT header
- Insufficient liquidity on underlying markets: may return lower liquidity_score values or stale data
- Market not yet created for next quarter: slug may roll over and return a different contract than expected
- Network or provider outage: upstream Kalshi/Polymarket data unavailable, may return error or stale snapshot
- Invalid or expired payment: 402 rejection even if header is present

## How this service works

Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with the aggregated cross-venue probability (e.g. 0.2573), per-venue breakdowns (Kalshi and Polymarket) including implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score, plus the divergence between venues, 1h price movement, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, and metadata including data freshness and source list.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "government-shutdown-october-2026",
   "topic": "government-shutdown-this-quarter",
   "category": "politics",
   "question": "Will there be a US government shutdown at the October 2026 funding deadline?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "kalshi",
     "implied_p": 0.2628,
     "market_id": "KXGOVERNMENTSHUT",
     "volume_24h_usd": 36151.19,
     "liquidity_score": 0.868
    },
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.2514,
     "market_id": "government-shutdown-october-2026",
     "volume_24h_usd": 58576.31,
     "liquidity_score": 0.862
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0.0114,
   "probability": 0.2573,
   "current_slug": "government-shutdown-october-2026",
   "last_move_1h": -0.0002,
   "topic_question": "Will there be a US government shutdown this quarter?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-10-01",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-10-01",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES on a lapse in appropriations beginning October 1, 2026."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.government-shutdown-this-quarter",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/government-shutdown-this-quarter",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.088Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-government-shutdown-this-quarter-probability-8a5f0d52/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)