# x402-factory Oscars Best Picture Prediction Market Probability

> x402-factory Oscars Best Picture Prediction Market Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns real-time prediction market probability that the awards-season favorite will win Best Picture at the next Oscars, aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/oscars-best-picture
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-oscars-best-picture-prediction-market-probability-d9fe7c23
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_8ZaoxMTyqdZLGyfPTGQRl

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-oscars-best-picture-prediction-market-probability-d9fe7c23
```

Example prompt: What are the current prediction market odds that the awards-season favorite wins Best Picture at the next Oscars — pull the latest probability from Polymarket and Kalshi?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a real-time, cross-venue aggregated probability for the Oscars Best Picture favorite, sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi. It is distinct from general entertainment news APIs because it provides quantitative market-implied probabilities, volume, and liquidity — not editorial predictions. Prefer it over scraping prediction market sites directly for a normalized, machine-readable signal ready for agent pipelines, at a low per-call cost via the x402 micropayment protocol.

## Known failure modes

- 402 Payment Required if X-PAYMENT header is absent or insufficient — response includes USDC/Base payment requirements
- Market may not yet exist for next Oscars cycle if ceremony is far out, returning empty or stale data
- Liquidity score near zero if market is illiquid or newly created
- Network or provider outage causing stale or missing per_venue data

## How this service works

Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.

## Output

A JSON object containing the aggregated implied probability (e.g. 0.4482) that the pre-ceremony betting favorite wins Best Picture, broken down per venue (Polymarket, Kalshi) with 24h USD volume, liquidity score, 1-hour price movement, resolution date (e.g. 2027-03-14), market divergence score, and metadata including data freshness and request ID.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "best-picture-favorite-wins-2027",
   "topic": "oscars-best-picture",
   "category": "entertainment",
   "question": "Will the awards-season favorite win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.4482,
     "market_id": "best-picture-favorite-wins-2027",
     "volume_24h_usd": 16474.28,
     "liquidity_score": 0.831
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.4482,
   "current_slug": "best-picture-favorite-wins-2027",
   "last_move_1h": -0.0023,
   "topic_question": "What wins Best Picture at the next Oscars?",
   "resolution_date": "2027-03-14",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2027-03-14",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the pre-ceremony betting favorite takes Best Picture."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.oscars-best-picture",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/oscars-best-picture",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.095Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-oscars-best-picture-prediction-market-probability-d9fe7c23/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)