# x402-factory Prediction Market Probability (by Slug)

> x402-factory Prediction Market Probability (by Slug) is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-09).

Returns aggregated live probability for a specific prediction market question, pulling real-time data from Kalshi and Polymarket and combining them into a consensus figure.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/%7Bslug%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-09
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-by-slug-ccbe844e
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_IdGVIG_IxtHVsoY1CV_nx

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-by-slug-ccbe844e
```

Example prompt: What's the current consensus probability that the Fed cuts rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting — pull the live Kalshi and Polymarket numbers for fed-rate-cut-2026-09 and show me how they compare.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a real-time, aggregated consensus probability for a specific named prediction market event (identified by a slug), want per-venue comparison between Kalshi and Polymarket, and need volume and liquidity metadata alongside the probability. Prefer this over building your own Kalshi/Polymarket integration when you want a single normalized call that handles multi-venue aggregation and divergence detection automatically.

## Known failure modes

- Unknown or misspelled slug returns a 404 or empty data response
- HTTP 402 with payment requirements returned if no X-PAYMENT header is supplied — must retry with USDC payment on Base
- Market may have resolved or been delisted, returning stale or null probability data
- Low liquidity markets may have missing or unreliable per-venue data
- Network or upstream venue outage can cause partial data with some venues missing

## How this service works

Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.

## Output

A JSON object containing the consensus probability (0–1), per-venue breakdown (Kalshi and Polymarket) with each venue's implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score, plus cross-venue divergence, 1-hour price movement, resolution date, and a plain-English resolution criteria summary. Metadata includes data freshness (realtime), sources list, and a unique request ID.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "required": {
   "type": "string"
  },
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
   "category": "economics",
   "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "kalshi",
     "implied_p": 0.7359,
     "market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
     "volume_24h_usd": 204455.43,
     "liquidity_score": 0.947
    },
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.7264,
     "market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
     "volume_24h_usd": 249729.17,
     "liquidity_score": 0.98
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0.0095,
   "probability": 0.7301,
   "last_move_1h": -0.001,
   "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.101Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-by-slug-ccbe844e/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)