# x402-factory Prediction Market Probability History

> x402-factory Prediction Market Probability History is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns hourly or daily blended probability time series for a prediction market, including per-venue breakdowns, volume data, and key_moves (buckets where probability shifted 5+ points).

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/history/:slug
- Price: $0.05/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-history-f142d508
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_ym1qtVbQ7GcL-B2CoZ9v5

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-history-f142d508
```

Example prompt: Show me the daily probability history for the prediction market 'us-2024-election' from 2024-01-01 to 2024-11-05, and flag any buckets where the blended probability jumped or dropped by 5 or more points.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need historical probability trend data for a prediction market, want to visualize how odds evolved over time, or need to identify significant change-points before querying more expensive real-time endpoints. Prefer over real-time endpoints when historical context or charting is the primary goal.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or unknown slug returns 404 not found
- Malformed date format in from/to returns 400 validation error
- Date range too large may time out or return partial data
- Payment failure (insufficient USDC balance) returns 402 Payment Required
- Invalid granularity value returns 400 bad request

## How this service works

Probability time series for a market with key-move detection — Hourly or daily blended probability series (per-venue series included where listed) with volume, plus key_moves: buckets where the blend moved at least 5 points. Useful for charting and for change-point context before paying for realtime reads.

## Output

A time series of blended probability values (hourly or daily), optional per-venue series, volume at each timestamp, and a key_moves array listing time buckets where the blended probability changed by at least 5 percentage points — useful for charting and identifying inflection points.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "pathParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "slug"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "slug": {
       "type": "string",
       "pattern": "^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"
      }
     }
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [],
     "properties": {
      "to": {
       "type": "string",
       "format": "date",
       "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))$"
      },
      "from": {
       "type": "string",
       "format": "date",
       "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))$"
      },
      "granularity": {
       "enum": [
        "hour",
        "day"
       ],
       "type": "string",
       "default": "day"
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-history-f142d508/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)