# x402-factory US Presidential Election Winner Party Probability

> x402-factory US Presidential Election Winner Party Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns the live aggregated probability of which party wins the next US presidential election, auto-rolling to the current market instance with metadata about when it rolls forward.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/presidential-election-winner-party
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-us-presidential-election-winner-party-probability-32a5dafa
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_15iGm39n0ozBQ3b5R6gVP

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-us-presidential-election-winner-party-probability-32a5dafa
```

Example prompt: What's the current probability of each party winning the next US presidential election, according to aggregated prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a stable, evergreen URL for US presidential election party-win probability that always points to the current active market cycle without needing to track changing slugs manually. Prefer this over direct venue APIs when you want a cross-venue aggregated probability with divergence metrics in a single call. Ideal for dashboards, monitoring agents, and briefing pipelines that must always reflect the 'next' election without manual reconfiguration.

## Known failure modes

- Market temporarily unavailable or no active instance — may return empty or null data
- Venue-level data missing if Kalshi or Polymarket API is down, resulting in partial per_venue array
- High divergence between venues indicating low market agreement — probability may be unreliable
- Resolution already occurred but roll-forward not yet triggered — current_slug may lag
- Payment failure (HTTP 402) if USDC balance is insufficient

## How this service works

Live probability: Which party wins the next US presidential election? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Which party wins the next US presidential election? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with: aggregated probability (0–1) for the winning party, per-venue breakdown from Kalshi and Polymarket (implied probability, 24h volume, liquidity score), divergence between venues, 1-hour probability move, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, the current market slug, and the date/time at which the evergreen URL will roll forward to the next election cycle.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "republican-wins-presidency-2028",
   "topic": "presidential-election-winner-party",
   "category": "politics",
   "question": "Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 US presidential election?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "kalshi",
     "implied_p": 0.5049,
     "market_id": "KXREPUBLICANWINS",
     "volume_24h_usd": 694856.63,
     "liquidity_score": 1
    },
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.5049,
     "market_id": "republican-wins-presidency-2028",
     "volume_24h_usd": 532283.98,
     "liquidity_score": 0.99
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.5049,
   "current_slug": "republican-wins-presidency-2028",
   "last_move_1h": -0.0018,
   "topic_question": "Which party wins the next US presidential election?",
   "resolution_date": "2028-11-07",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2028-11-07",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the Republican nominee wins the 2028 presidential election."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.presidential-election-winner-party",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/presidential-election-winner-party",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.095Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-us-presidential-election-winner-party-probability-32a5dafa/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)