# x402-factory US Recession Probability (Evergreen)

> x402-factory US Recession Probability (Evergreen) is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns the live prediction-market probability that the NBER will declare a US recession by end of the current/next year, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/us-recession-this-year
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-us-recession-probability-evergreen-602de36a
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_uiNBPzFwF6mtJppZPjmUR

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-us-recession-probability-evergreen-602de36a
```

Example prompt: What are prediction markets currently pricing as the probability of the US entering a recession this year — pull the latest odds from Polymarket and Kalshi?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a single, real-time, aggregated probability of a US recession from prediction markets (Polymarket + Kalshi) without building your own market-scraping pipeline. It is especially useful for macro dashboards, economic risk models, or agent workflows that need a machine-readable recession signal updated in real time. Prefer this over raw exchange APIs when you want a normalized, cross-venue aggregate at low per-call cost ($0.02 USDC).

## Known failure modes

- 402 Payment Required if X-PAYMENT header is missing or insufficient — response body contains USDC/Base payment requirements
- Stale or unavailable market data if upstream venues (Polymarket, Kalshi) are experiencing outages
- Network timeout if the aggregation layer is slow
- Invalid or malformed payment header returns 402 with error details

## How this service works

Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.

## Output

A JSON object containing: the aggregate recession probability (e.g. 0.1658), per-venue breakdown with implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score for each market (Polymarket, Kalshi), the 1-hour price move, resolution date (e.g. 2026-12-31), resolution criteria summary (NBER announcement), and metadata including data freshness (realtime), sources, and a docs link.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "nber-declares-recession-2026-12",
   "topic": "us-recession-this-year",
   "category": "economics",
   "question": "Will the NBER declare a US recession by end of 2026?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.1658,
     "market_id": "nber-declares-recession-2026-12",
     "volume_24h_usd": 180865.01,
     "liquidity_score": 0.941
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0,
   "probability": 0.1658,
   "current_slug": "nber-declares-recession-2026-12",
   "last_move_1h": -0.002,
   "topic_question": "Will the US enter a recession this year?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES on an NBER business-cycle dating committee announcement in 2026."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.us-recession-this-year",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/us-recession-this-year",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.100Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-us-recession-probability-evergreen-602de36a/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)