# x402-factory Weather Event Probability

> x402-factory Weather Event Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns the model's probability (0–1) that a specific weather condition occurs within a given time window, with method label and optional prediction-market cross-reference

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/climate-events/probability
- Price: $0.05/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-weather-event-probability-5fe156ec
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_ji4bAkxblwZKGT9qp9GuI

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-weather-event-probability-5fe156ec
```

Example prompt: What's the probability that temperature exceeds 32°C in Phoenix between July 5 and July 10, 2025 — and is there a prediction market covering that event?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a single calibrated probability estimate for a specific weather threshold event at a point location or city within the next 31 days, especially when you want ensemble model outputs and optional cross-referencing with active prediction markets. Prefer this over raw forecast endpoints when you need a single probability number rather than a full forecast time series.

## Known failure modes

- Missing required parameters (condition, window_start, window_end) returns a 400 validation error
- Neither lat/lon nor city provided — returns a 400 requiring at least one location specifier
- Threshold not provided for conditions that require it (temp_above, temp_below, precip_above, wind_above) — returns validation error
- Window exceeds 31 days — returns 400 or stub-method response with degraded accuracy
- City not recognized — returns 404 or empty location match
- Payment not provided or insufficient USDC — returns 402 Payment Required
- Window in the past or too far in the future — may return stub method or error

## How this service works

Probability of a specific weather event in a window, for any point or city — Our model's probability that a condition (temp above/below a threshold, precip amount, wind, any precip, named-storm landfall) occurs in a window up to 31 days out, with the method labeled. When a listed prediction market covers the same event, it is cross-referenced.

## Output

Returns a probability value between 0 and 1 for the specified weather condition occurring in the window, labeled by the forecasting method used (ensemble, climatology_blend, or stub), and optionally includes a cross-referenced prediction market if one covers the same event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "condition",
      "window_start",
      "window_end"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "lat": {
       "type": "number",
       "maximum": 90,
       "minimum": -90
      },
      "lon": {
       "type": "number",
       "maximum": 180,
       "minimum": -180
      },
      "city": {
       "type": "string",
       "maxLength": 40,
       "minLength": 2,
       "description": "Major US city name as an alternative to lat/lon"
      },
      "condition": {
       "enum": [
        "temp_above",
        "temp_below",
        "precip_above",
        "wind_above",
        "any_precip",
        "named_storm_landfall"
       ],
       "type": "string"
      },
      "threshold": {
       "type": "number",
       "description": "Metric units: °C for temp, mm for precip, kph for wind"
      },
      "window_end": {
       "type": "string",
       "format": "date-time",
       "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d(?::[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$"
      },
      "window_stat": {
       "enum": [
        "max",
        "min"
       ],
       "type": "string",
       "default": "max",
       "description": "Binding statistic for temperature events: max (default) or min; exact semantics in docs"
      },
      "window_start": {
       "type": "string",
       "format": "date-time",
       "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d(?::[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$"
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "st
… (truncated)
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "method": "stub",
   "probability": 0.0276,
   "comparable_market": {
    "slug": "nyc-high-temp-above-95f-2026-07-24",
    "market_p": 0.329
   }
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/edge.climate-events-probability",
   "sources": [
    "stub-model"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/climate-events/probability",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:57.932Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-weather-event-probability-5fe156ec/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)