# x402-factory Weather Market Edge Analysis

> x402-factory Weather Market Edge Analysis is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.1/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns a deep model-vs-market breakdown for a single weather prediction market, including model probability, discretized distribution, divergence history, half-Kelly sizing hint, and risk notes.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/edge/:slug
- Price: $0.1/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-weather-market-edge-analysis-a8c129a1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_ijBekjNJVeEnwgoKB3u3N

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-weather-market-edge-analysis-a8c129a1
```

Example prompt: Pull the full model-vs-market edge breakdown for the weather market slug 'chicago-high-temp-above-90-aug15' — I want to see the model probability, market probability, divergence history, and the half-Kelly sizing hint so I can decide whether to take a position.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need the full quantitative picture for a single weather market — not just a blended probability (use the Kalshi/Polymarket blend endpoint for that) but the model's own distribution, the historical divergence trend, and a position-sizing hint. Ideal for agents making or evaluating trade decisions on weather prediction contracts.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or unknown slug returns an error — use /v1/edge/weather-markets to find valid slugs
- Market not yet resolved or no stored signals may return empty divergence_history
- Payment failure (x402 protocol) results in 402 response requiring 0.1 USDC
- Slug format mismatch (must match ^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$) returns validation error
- Model data unavailable for very new or illiquid markets

## How this service works

Deep model-vs-market breakdown for one weather market — Full divergence picture for a single weather market: model probability with the discretized model distribution, divergence history from stored signals, a half-Kelly sizing hint, and explicit risk notes (including model labeling). Find slugs via /v1/edge/weather-markets.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with: model_p (model probability 0-1), market_p (market-implied probability 0-1), model_distribution (array of {value, p} pairs representing the discretized model distribution), divergence_history (array of {t, divergence} timestamped records), kelly_fraction_hint (half-Kelly sizing fraction capped at 0.25), and risk_notes (array of strings flagging model labeling and other risks). A meta object is also returned.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "pathParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "slug"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "slug": {
       "type": "string",
       "pattern": "^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"
      }
     }
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "data",
      "meta"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "data": {
       "type": "object",
       "required": [
        "market_p",
        "model_p",
        "model_method",
        "market_class",
        "class_calibrated",
        "model_distribution",
        "divergence_history",
        "kelly_fraction_hint",
        "risk_notes"
       ],
       "properties": {
        "model_p": {
         "type": "number",
         "maximum": 1,
         "minimum": 0
        },
        "market_p": {
         "type": "number",
         "maximum": 1,
         "minimum": 0
        },
        "risk_notes": {
         "type": "array",
         "items": {
          "type": "string"
         }
        },
        "market_class": {
         "type": "string",
         "description": "Market-class taxonomy label (see /v1/edge/calibration)"
        },
        "model_method": {
         "type": "string",
         "description": "What produced model_p: the proprietary nowcast, an NWS-derived lead estimate, or passthrough"
        },
        "class_calibrated": {
         "type": "boolean",
         "description": "Whether this class is on the calibration allowlist; when false the sizing hint is withheld (0)"
        },
        "divergence_history": {
         "type": "array",
         "items": {
          "type": "object",
          "required": [
           "t",
           "divergence"
          ],
          "properties": {
           "t": {
            "type": "string"
           },
           "divergence": {
            "type": "number"
           }
          },
          "additionalProperties
… (truncated)
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-weather-market-edge-analysis-a8c129a1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)