# x402stock Prediction Market Implied Probability by ID

> x402stock Prediction Market Implied Probability by ID is a paid API for AI agents from x402stock.xyz, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-08).

Returns the implied probability and trading data for a specific prediction market contract, decoded from on-chain Polymarket CTF Exchange V2 order events on Polygon.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402stock.xyz/api/v1/prediction-markets/%7Bid%7D
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-08
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402stock-prediction-market-implied-probability-by-id-b637ac3c
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_JFBC0g0d41qKSVqLeIEF_

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402stock-prediction-market-implied-probability-by-id-b637ac3c
```

Example prompt: What's the current implied probability for the Polymarket market with condition ID 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 — including today's VWAP and volume?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need raw on-chain implied probability data for a specific Polymarket market without relying on the Polymarket API — ideal for agents that need trustless, blockchain-verified prediction market prices, VWAP, and volume decoded directly from Polygon CTF Exchange V2 events. Prefer this over scraping Polymarket's website or using their API when you need decentralized data provenance or pay-per-call access with no account required.

## Known failure modes

- Unknown or invalid market ID returns 404 or empty result
- Market not yet indexed returns stale or missing data
- Very new markets with few trades may have unreliable VWAP
- Network or payment failure returns 402 if USDC payment via x402 on Base is not completed
- Malformed ID format may return a schema validation error

## How this service works

Pay-per-call market and economic data API for AI agents: US stocks, ETFs and options, forex, crypto and on-chain perps, energy commodities, US and global macro (Fed, CPI, jobs, GDP, Treasury, World Bank), SEC filings, congressional trades, and market sentiment. No API keys, no accounts. Pay per request in USDC via x402 on Base.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with the market title, condition ID, question ID, oracle address, neg_risk flag, implied probability (USD per outcome token = probability), VWAP for today, total USD volume today and all-time indexed, number of trades today and indexed, last trade side (buy/sell), last block, and a timestamp. Data is decoded from on-chain CTF Exchange V2 OrdersMatched events on Polygon, not from any Polymarket API.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "note": "Implied probabilities decoded from CTF Exchange V2 OrdersMatched events on the public Polygon ledger (both standard and neg-risk exchanges). Not from any Polymarket API. Prices are USD per outcome token = implied probability.",
  "as_of": "2026-06-08T13:02:11.000Z",
  "venue": "polymarket",
  "market": {
   "title": "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
   "neg_risk": false,
   "token_id": "21742633143463906290569050155826241533067272736897614950488156847949938836455",
   "last_side": "buy",
   "last_block": 61234560,
   "updated_at": "2026-06-08T12:58:40.000Z",
   "vwap_today": 0.938,
   "condition_id": "0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917",
   "matches_today": 9123,
   "matches_indexed": 88123,
   "volume_usd_today": 1842310.55,
   "volume_usd_indexed": 24310221.07,
   "implied_probability": 0.945
  },
  "source": "x402stock",
  "identity": {
   "title": "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
   "oracle": "0xCB1822859cEF82Cd2Eb4E6276C7916e692995130",
   "neg_risk": false,
   "question_id": "0x35d4e62fee5a1d4b1ad96b6c4e2de60326f8b5d49b3b734e0c9be0c4f9a32cd1",
   "condition_id": "0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402stock-prediction-market-implied-probability-by-id-b637ac3c/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402stock.xyz](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402stock.xyz/llms.txt)