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CloudMaxi0x Trade Return Significance Validator
x402
CloudMaxi0x Trade Return Significance Validator is a paid API for AI agents from cloudmaxi0x.com, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Tests whether a list of per-trade R-multiple returns can be statistically distinguished from luck, applying multiple-testing correction based on the number of strategy variants tried
Price / call$0.05
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Deterministic, verifiable crypto market data and honest backtest audits. Use GET /v1/data/ohlcv for exact OHLCV over a half-open range with a SHA-256 Merkle manifest - only closed candles are returned, exchange decimal strings are preserved byte for byte, so the same query always yields the same root. Use GET /v1/data/proof to verify one candle against a root you already hold. Use POST /v1/validate/trades to find out whether a list of trade returns can be distinguished from luck, and POST /v1/validate/filter to test a trade filter against a permutation null. GET /, /v1/schema and /v1/data/sources are free.
Output
Returns a statistical verdict on whether the submitted trade returns can be distinguished from random luck, including a corrected p-value or significance score that accounts for the number of strategy variants tried (multiple-testing correction). If trial Sharpe values are supplied, the correction is exact rather than approximated.
Example use cases
Overfitting check on crypto strategy
“I backtested a crypto mean-reversion strategy across 60 trades with these R-multiples: [0.9, -1.0, 1.5, 0.2, ...]. I tried 25 different parameter sets before picking this one. Can you tell me if the results are actually significant or if I just got lucky curve-fitting?”
Validating a single-variant systematic strategy
“My algo strategy has exactly 1 version — no parameter tuning, pure signal — and it produced 85 trades with R-multiples I can share. Can you check if those returns are statistically real and not just noise?”
Fee-adjusted edge test for live deployment
“Before I go live, I need to know if my backtest edge survives after accounting for 0.1 R per trade in slippage and commissions. I have 150 chronological trade R-multiples and tried 12 strategy variants. Can you run the significance test with that cost adjustment?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://cloudmaxi0x.com/v1/validate/tradesWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need to know whether a crypto trading strategy's backtest results are genuinely statistically significant or likely the product of overfitting and data-mining bias. It is specifically designed to apply honest multiple-testing correction based on how many variants were tried — making it superior to naive t-tests or Sharpe comparisons that ignore the strategy selection process. Prefer it over generic stats libraries when you want an auditable, fee-aware significance result that penalizes overfitting appropriately.
Side effects
- Fewer than 30 trades supplied — minimum minItems constraint violated
- n_trials_declared set to 1 when many variants were actually tried — leads to overconfident (uncorrected) result
- cost_per_trade_r set to negative value — rejected by minimum:0 constraint
- Non-chronological returns array — may produce misleading sequential statistics
- Payment failure or insufficient USDC balance — 402 response, call not processed
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| returns_r | array | Per-trade result in R (multiples of the risk taken on that trade). A trade stopped out at its initial stop is -1.0. Order must be chronological. |
| trial_sharpes | — | Optional: the per-trade Sharpe of every variant you tried. Supplying these makes the multiple-testing correction exact instead of approximated. |
| cost_per_trade_r | number | Optional: additional round-trip cost in R to subtract from every trade before testing, if your backtest was run gross of fees and slippage. |
| n_trials_declared | integer | How many strategy variants you tried in total before settling on this one - every parameter set, symbol and timeframe, including the ones you discarded. This is the single most important number you can give us, and the one people understate. |
Tags
x402
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