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Cross-Venue Prediction Market Event Fusion
x402
Cross-Venue Prediction Market Event Fusion is a paid API for AI agents from api.agentstools.dev, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Matches the same event across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus using fuzzy title matching and date proximity, then returns each venue's implied probability, a weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Cross-venue event fusion: match the SAME event across prediction venues (deterministic fuzzy title match + resolve-date proximity) and return each venue's implied probability, a money-type-weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal (venue disagreement, not a tradeable arbitrage).
Output
Returns each prediction venue's implied probability for the matched event, a money-type-weighted consensus probability across venues, and a forecast-divergence signal quantifying how much the venues disagree — along with the matched market titles and resolve dates used for the cross-venue pairing.
Example use cases
Compare election outcome across venues
“What are Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus each saying about the probability of a Republican winning the 2026 midterms, and is there meaningful disagreement between them?”
Consensus forecast for AI milestone
“Can you pull together a unified probability estimate across all the major prediction markets for whether AGI will be achieved before 2030, and flag if any venue is a big outlier?”
Check venue divergence on geopolitical event
“How much do Polymarket and Metaculus disagree on the chances of a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of this year? Give me each venue's number and the divergence signal.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.agentstools.dev/prediction/eventWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a unified view of how multiple prediction markets assess the same event, especially to detect forecast divergence or compute a cross-venue consensus. Prefer this over querying individual venue APIs when you want probabilistic aggregation and disagreement signals in a single call rather than raw market data from one source.
Side effects
- No matching event found across any venue — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous query matches unrelated markets — wrong event fused
- Only one venue has the event — divergence signal is unavailable
- market_id anchor not found on specified venue — fallback to text-only matching
- Rate limit or payment failure — 402 or 429 response
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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