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Delx Binary Expected Value Calculator
x402
Delx Binary Expected Value Calculator is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.001/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Computes the expected value (EV) of a binary bet given stake, true probability, and market price
Price / call$0.001
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Expected value of buying binary YES at market_price under true_prob. Call when deciding whether a YES buy has positive EV before size. Returns EV per $1 notional on YES as deterministic JSON for $0.001 USDC via x402 on Base. First-party local math only—no RPC, live market feed, API keys, storage, or mediagen. Advisory only; the caller owns capital, risk, and production controls.
Output
Returns a JSON object containing the computed expected value (ev), the original stake, the number of shares received, and a schema identifier. For example: {"ev": 14.58, "stake": 100, "schema": "delx/util-binary-ev/v1", "shares": 208.33}.
Example use cases
Evaluating a prediction market trade
“Before I enter this position, calculate the EV for a $250 stake on a binary market where I believe the true probability is 70% but the current market price is 55%.”
Checking if a bet has positive EV
“I'm looking at a binary bet with a $50 stake — my model says true probability is 40% but the market is offering it at 30%. What's the expected value and how many shares would I get?”
Comparing multiple market positions
“Run an EV calculation for a binary market trade: I want to put in 500 units, I estimate the true probability at 80%, and the market price is sitting at 72%. Is this worth it based on expected value?”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/binary-evWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when an AI agent needs to programmatically evaluate the profitability of a binary prediction market position before executing a trade. Prefer this over manual calculation when you need consistent, machine-readable EV outputs (including shares) as part of an automated trading or decision workflow. Best suited for agents operating in prediction market or binary options contexts where true probability estimates differ from market prices.
Side effects
- Missing required fields (stake, true_prob, or market_price) result in validation error
- true_prob outside [0,1] range may produce nonsensical or error results
- market_price of 0 or 1 may cause division-by-zero or extreme share values
- Negative stake values may produce invalid output
- Non-numeric inputs for numeric fields will fail schema validation
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| stake | integer | Input field: stake. |
| true_prob | number | Input field: true prob. |
| market_price | number | Input field: market price. |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"ev": 14.58333333333334,
"stake": 100,
"schema": "delx/util-binary-ev/v1",
"shares": 208.3333333333333
}
}Tags
x402
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