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Delx BTC Up/Down 15-Minute Probability
x402
Delx BTC Up/Down 15-Minute Probability is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Estimates the probability that Bitcoin's price will be up or down over a 15-minute window, given caller-supplied price observations and window parameters.
Price / call$0.003
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Bitcoin Up or Down 15-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for quarter-hour windows using a broader caller-supplied trend sample. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied BTC price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Solana. First-…
Output
Returns a JSON object containing the probability pair (p_up, p_down), the directional lean ('up' or 'down'), a data quality score with label (e.g. 'adequate_input_coverage'), the number of observations used, a model contract object indicating version and calibration caveats, and a list of warnings (e.g. 'probability_is_uncalibrated', 'not_trading_advice'). Optionally includes a model-edge comparison if share prices and fees were supplied.
Example use cases
Prediction market entry decision
“I have 30 BTC price samples from the last two hours. The next 15-minute contract opens at $67,100 and closes at Unix timestamp 1716303600. The UP share is $0.65 and DOWN share is $0.35 with a 100 bps fee — what's the estimated probability of BTC going up and is there a model edge worth acting on?”
Automated trading signal generation
“Every 15 minutes, take my 60 most recent BTC price observations and estimate whether Bitcoin is more likely to be up or down at the end of the window, starting from the current opening price of $66,800 at close timestamp 1716307200.”
Backtesting direction probability model
“I have 240 historical BTC price points from a past session where the window opened at $64,500 and closed at timestamp 1715700000 — run the up/down probability estimate so I can compare it against the actual outcome for my backtest.”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-15mWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, stateless probability estimate for Bitcoin's 15-minute directional movement using your own supplied price observations, without requiring any live market data feed. It is especially useful for prediction market agents that need a model-edge comparison against published share prices and entry fees. Prefer it over generic ML inference endpoints when you want a structured, versioned BTC-specific probability output with calibration warnings and data quality scoring.
Side effects
- Fewer than 8 or more than 240 observations causes validation rejection
- Missing required fields (window_open_price or window_close_timestamp) returns an error
- Observations with duplicate or out-of-order timestamps may degrade data quality score
- Share prices outside [0,1] or fee_bps outside [0,1000] return schema validation errors
- Payment not settled via x402 results in 402 Payment Required response
- Low-quality or noisy input data produces a low data_quality score with appropriate warnings
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| fee_bps | integer | |
| observations | array | |
| market_up_price | number | |
| market_down_price | number | |
| window_open_price | number | |
| window_close_timestamp | integer |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asset": "BTC",
"model": {
"version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
"no_live_market_data": true,
"probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
"deterministic_for_same_input": true
},
"schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
"status": "estimate",
"estimate": {
"lean": "up",
"p_up": 0.800406,
"p_down": 0.199594
},
"warnings": [
"caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
"probability_is_uncalibrated",
"not_trading_advice"
],
"data_quality": {
"label": "adequate_input_coverage",
"score": 0.754056,
"observations_used": 8
},
"horizon_minutes": 15,
"input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
}
}Tags
x402
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