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Delx Commerce — Implied Probability from Yes/No Counts
x402
Delx Commerce — Implied Probability from Yes/No Counts is a paid API for AI agents from commerce.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.001/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-01).
Converts raw yes/no vote or bet counts into implied probabilities, removing the overround to produce fair market probabilities.
Price / call$0.001
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Pay-per-result APIs for agents. No signup. Exact price. Verifiable delivery. USDC on Base + Solana via x402.
Output
Returns a JSON object with p_yes (implied probability of yes outcome), p_no (implied probability of no outcome), overround (the total excess probability above 1.0, indicating the market's margin), and a schema identifier string. Example: p_yes≈0.404, p_no≈0.596, overround≈0.04.
Example use cases
Prediction market probability normalization
“I have a binary prediction market with 104 yes contracts and 156 no contracts — what are the implied probabilities for each outcome, and what's the overround baked in?”
Binary poll result conversion
“Our survey got 312 yes responses and 218 no responses. Convert those counts into implied probabilities so I can see the fair percentage for each side.”
Sports betting odds to probability
“A betting market shows 67 yes bets and 48 no bets — can you work out the implied probability for yes and no, and tell me what the overround is?”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://commerce.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/implied-from-yes-no?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you have raw binary vote, contract, or bet counts and need to derive fair implied probabilities with the overround explicitly surfaced. Ideal for prediction markets, binary polls, or sports betting analysis where you want a quick, cheap, verifiable computation without building the math yourself. Prefer this over general statistics APIs when you specifically need the implied probability decomposition pattern with overround, paid per-call with no signup via x402/USDC.
Side effects
- Missing or non-numeric yes/no values returns a validation error
- Both yes and no equal zero causes a division-by-zero or undefined probability
- Payment not provided or insufficient USDC results in HTTP 402 Payment Required
- Negative input values may produce nonsensical probabilities
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| no | number | Input field: no. |
| yes | number | Input field: yes. |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"p_no": 0.5961538461538461,
"p_yes": 0.4038461538461538,
"schema": "delx/util-implied-from-yes-no/v1",
"overround": 0.04000000000000004
}
}Tags
x402
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