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Delx ETH Up/Down 30-Minute Probability
x402
Delx ETH Up/Down 30-Minute Probability is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Estimates the probability that Ethereum's price will be up or down in a 30-minute window using caller-supplied historical observations and optional market share pricing context.
Price / call$0.003
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Ethereum Up or Down 30-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for half-hour windows using the widest caller-supplied context in this family. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied ETH price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Solan…
Output
Returns a JSON object containing: asset identifier (ETH), probability pair (p_up, p_down) as floats summing to 1, a directional lean ('up' or 'down'), a data quality score and label, number of observations used, model contract metadata (version, calibration status, determinism flags), horizon in minutes (30), input provenance label, and an array of warnings (e.g. uncalibrated probability, not trading advice).
Example use cases
Prediction market entry decision
“I'm considering buying shares on an ETH up/down prediction market — the window opens at $3,180 and closes in 30 minutes at timestamp 1720005600. Here are my 10 recent ETH prices: [3150, 3155, 3160, 3158, 3162, 3170, 3175, 3178, 3180, 3182]. UP shares are priced at 0.60 and DOWN at 0.40 with a 50 bps fee. What does the model say about edge?”
Automated ETH directional signal
“Every 30 minutes I want a fresh ETH direction probability. Here are 20 ordered ETH price readings from the last few hours, the window opens at $2,900.00, and it closes at timestamp 1720100400. Just give me p_up, p_down, and the lean.”
Data quality check on sparse observations
“I only have 8 ETH price points right now — timestamps and prices from the past 15 minutes. Window open is $3,050.00 and close timestamp is 1720050000. Can you still run the 30-minute up/down estimate and tell me how reliable the result is given so few observations?”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-30mWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a wide-context ETH directional probability estimate using your own historical price series (8–240 observations) rather than relying on live market data. It is ideal for prediction market edge analysis when you can supply UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees. Prefer it over shorter-context siblings in the Delx family when you have rich historical data and want the most informed conservative estimate. Use it when you need a deterministic, reproducible result for the same input — useful for backtesting or auditing prediction logic.
Side effects
- Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected with validation error
- Observations array exceeds 240 items — schema validation failure
- window_open_price or window_close_timestamp missing — may degrade or reject estimate
- Payment not provided or insufficient USDC via x402 — 402 Payment Required response
- market_up_price + market_down_price do not sum to ~1 — edge comparison may be skewed
- Timestamps not ordered or not Unix integers — input quality score degraded, warnings returned
- Price values outside allowed range (below 1e-12 or above 1e15) — rejected by schema validation
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| fee_bps | integer | |
| observations | array | |
| market_up_price | number | |
| market_down_price | number | |
| window_open_price | number | |
| window_close_timestamp | integer |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asset": "ETH",
"model": {
"version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
"no_live_market_data": true,
"probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
"deterministic_for_same_input": true
},
"schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
"status": "estimate",
"estimate": {
"lean": "up",
"p_up": 0.800833,
"p_down": 0.199167
},
"warnings": [
"caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
"probability_is_uncalibrated",
"not_trading_advice"
],
"data_quality": {
"label": "adequate_input_coverage",
"score": 0.758333,
"observations_used": 8
},
"horizon_minutes": 30,
"input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
}
}Tags
x402
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