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Delx Ethereum Up/Down 15-Minute Probability
x402
Delx Ethereum Up/Down 15-Minute Probability is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).
Estimates the probability that ETH will be up or down over a 15-minute window given caller-supplied price observations, opening price, and close timestamp
Price / call$0.003
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Ethereum Up or Down 15-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for quarter-hour windows using a broader caller-supplied trend sample. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied ETH price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Solana. First…
Output
Returns a JSON object with p_up and p_down probability estimates (summing to 1), a lean direction ('up' or 'down'), a data quality score and label, the number of observations used, model metadata (version, calibration flags), the asset name (ETH), horizon in minutes (15), input provenance, and an array of warnings such as uncalibrated probability and not-trading-advice notices.
Example use cases
Pre-trade directional bias check
“I have 60 ordered ETH price readings from the last two hours. The current 15-minute candle opened at $3,520.00 and closes at timestamp 1718204400. Can you estimate whether ETH is more likely to be up or down at close, and give me the probability scores?”
Binary market edge evaluation
“Before I enter an ETH up/down prediction market, can you run a 15-minute probability estimate using my 120 ETH price observations? Opening price is $3,480.00, close timestamp is 1718208000, UP shares cost $0.55, DOWN shares cost $0.45, and the entry fee is 100 basis points — I want to see if the model shows a real edge.”
Automated trading signal generation
“Every 15 minutes I want you to take my latest 30 ETH price samples, send them to the probability model with the new window's open price and close timestamp, and tell me the lean direction and p_up/p_down scores so my system can decide whether to enter a position.”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-15mWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, lightweight ETH directional probability estimate for a specific 15-minute window using your own historical price observations, without relying on live market data feeds. It is ideal for agents operating in prediction markets or binary outcome venues where you already have access to price time series and need a quick model-edge check at very low cost ($0.003 USDC). Prefer alternatives if you need calibrated probabilities, multi-asset forecasts, longer horizons, or real-time data ingestion.
Side effects
- Fewer than 8 observations supplied — request rejected with validation error
- Observations not in chronological order — may produce degraded quality score or rejection
- window_open_price or window_close_timestamp missing — required fields cause 400 error
- Payment not provided or insufficient USDC via x402 — 402 Payment Required response
- market_up_price and market_down_price out of valid [0,1] range — validation failure
- Extremely noisy or low-coverage input — returns low data_quality score with 'poor_input_coverage' label and warnings
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| fee_bps | integer | |
| observations | array | |
| market_up_price | number | |
| market_down_price | number | |
| window_open_price | number | |
| window_close_timestamp | integer |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asset": "ETH",
"model": {
"version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
"no_live_market_data": true,
"probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
"deterministic_for_same_input": true
},
"schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
"status": "estimate",
"estimate": {
"lean": "up",
"p_up": 0.800406,
"p_down": 0.199594
},
"warnings": [
"caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
"probability_is_uncalibrated",
"not_trading_advice"
],
"data_quality": {
"label": "adequate_input_coverage",
"score": 0.754056,
"observations_used": 8
},
"horizon_minutes": 15,
"input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
}
}Tags
x402
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