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Delx Ethereum Up/Down 5-Minute Probability Estimator
x402
Delx Ethereum Up/Down 5-Minute Probability Estimator is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Estimates the probability that ETH price will be up or down at the close of a 5-minute window, given caller-supplied price observations and window parameters.
Price / call$0.003
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Ethereum Up or Down 5-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for rapid near-close windows where the freshest supplied observations matter most. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied ETH price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or So…
Output
Returns a JSON object with the estimated p_up and p_down probability pair (summing to 1.0), a lean direction (up/down), an input data quality score and label, the model version and metadata flags (e.g. uncalibrated, no live market data), the asset (ETH), horizon in minutes (5), and an array of warnings such as 'probability_is_uncalibrated' or 'not_trading_advice'. When UP/DOWN share prices and fees are provided, an implicit model-edge comparison may be included.
Example use cases
Pre-trade ETH binary market check
“I'm about to enter an ETH UP position in a 5-minute binary market where UP shares cost $0.62 and DOWN shares cost $0.38, with a 50 bps fee. I have 20 recent ETH price observations — window opened at $3,512.00 and closes at timestamp 1718551800. What are the p_up and p_down estimates, and does the model see any edge for me?”
Automated ETH direction signal for trading bot
“My trading bot needs a probability estimate for ETH's 5-minute close direction. I have 30 ordered price observations from the past few minutes, window open price is $3,488.75, and close timestamp is 1718552400. Give me p_up, p_down, the lean, and a data quality score so the bot can decide whether to act.”
Validating observation quality before placing prediction
“Before I submit my ETH prediction, I want to check whether my 8 price observations are good enough quality for a reliable estimate. Window open price is $3,600.10 and close timestamp is 1718553000 — can you run the model and tell me the data quality label and any warnings?”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-5mWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, low-cost ($0.003) binary directional probability estimate for ETH over a 5-minute window using your own supplied price observations, without requiring live market data feeds. It is ideal for agents operating in binary prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket-style ETH up/down contracts) that need a model-generated lean and edge comparison before placing or automating a trade. Prefer this over generic sentiment or on-chain analytics when you have a specific window close timestamp and recent ordered price data, and want explicit data quality scoring and conservative probability bounds.
Side effects
- Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected with validation error
- Observations are out of order or contain invalid timestamps — may reduce data quality score or trigger warnings
- window_open_price or window_close_timestamp missing — required fields absent cause request failure
- Probability is flagged as uncalibrated — model explicitly warns results are not calibrated probabilities
- Payment of $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base fails — request not processed
- market_up_price + market_down_price don't sum near 1.0 — edge comparison may be misleading
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| fee_bps | integer | |
| observations | array | |
| market_up_price | number | |
| market_down_price | number | |
| window_open_price | number | |
| window_close_timestamp | integer |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asset": "ETH",
"model": {
"version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
"no_live_market_data": true,
"probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
"deterministic_for_same_input": true
},
"schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
"status": "estimate",
"estimate": {
"lean": "up",
"p_up": 0.79955,
"p_down": 0.20045
},
"warnings": [
"caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
"probability_is_uncalibrated",
"not_trading_advice"
],
"data_quality": {
"label": "adequate_input_coverage",
"score": 0.7455,
"observations_used": 8
},
"horizon_minutes": 5,
"input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
}
}Tags
x402
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