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EconSignalPulse Recession Signals
x402
EconSignalPulse Recession Signals is a paid API for AI agents from econsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com, paid per call via x402, $0.15/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Returns multi-indicator recession probability for a given country using PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory, and IMF forecasts
Price / call$0.15
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Multi-indicator recession probability for any country — PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory and IMF forecasts. For macro and cross-asset agents.
Output
A composite recession probability score for the requested country, disaggregated by individual indicator signals (PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory, IMF forecasts), enabling macro and cross-asset agents to assess near-term contraction risk.
Example use cases
Example prompt
“What's the current recession probability for Germany — pull together the PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, and GDP trajectory signals so I can see where the composite score lands.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://econsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com/api/econsignal/recession-signalsWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a single composite recession probability that synthesizes multiple leading and lagging indicators (PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP, IMF forecasts) for a specific country, rather than pulling and aggregating each signal separately. Ideal for macro research agents, cross-asset portfolio risk tools, or sovereign risk assessments requiring a fast, unified recession signal.
Side effects
- Unsupported or unrecognized country code returns a 404 or validation error
- Stale or unavailable underlying data for a given country may return partial signals or a lower-confidence composite
- Rate limiting or payment failure returns 402 or 429
- Network timeout if upstream data providers are slow
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"query_summary": {
"iso2": "DE",
"iso3": "DEU",
"country": "Germany",
"horizon": "12 months"
},
"historical_analog": "2002-2003 (tech bust + structural reform period) — 3 quarters of contraction followed by slow recovery",
"structural_context": {
"china_exposure": "7.3% of German exports to China — slowing Chinese economy is direct headwind",
"fiscal_position": "Debt brake limits stimulus capacity; constitutional constraint on deficit spending",
"energy_shock_legacy": "German industry permanently lost ~15% cost competitiveness post-2022 energy crisis",
"automotive_disruption": "EV transition eroding German auto sector advantage; China competition intensifying"
},
"indicator_dashboard": {
"gdp_trend": "Two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2023; shallow recovery 2024",
"yield_curve": "Inverted — 10yr/2yr spread -45bps; historically 70% accurate 12-month signal",
"pmi_services": 51.1,
"pmi_manufacturing": 43.2,
"unemployment_trend": "Rising — 5.7% vs 5.0% trough; Kurzarbeit uptake increasing",
"ifo_business_climate": 86.5,
"consumer_confidence_gfk": -21.3
},
"monitoring_triggers": [
"PMI manufacturing sustained below 45 for 3+ months",
"Unemployment above 6%",
"DAX -15% from peak",
"Energy prices spiking above €100/MWh"
],
"recession_probability": {
"pct": 62,
"label": "Elevated risk",
"confidence": "Medium-High"
}
}
}Tags
x402
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