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Genesis Conductor x402 — Polymarket/Manifold Prediction Market Arbitrage
x402
Genesis Conductor x402 — Polymarket/Manifold Prediction Market Arbitrage is a paid API for AI agents from x402-paid-service.iholt.workers.dev, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Fetches and fuses prediction market data from Polymarket CLOB and Manifold Markets to identify convex YES leverage opportunities and cross-venue pricing gaps
Price / call$0.05
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Prediction fuse — Polymarket CLOB + Manifold mana, convex YES leverage + cross-venue gap
Output
Returns fused market data combining Polymarket CLOB order book prices and Manifold mana-denominated odds for a queried event, highlighting cross-venue price discrepancies and convex YES leverage signals that a trader could act on.
Example use cases
Fed policy bet cross-venue arbitrage
“Check Polymarket and Manifold for any pricing gap on 'Will the Fed cut rates before July 2025?' — I want to know if there's a convex YES play or a mispricing I can exploit between venues.”
Election market leverage scan
“Pull current YES odds from both Polymarket CLOB and Manifold for the 2025 UK election markets and flag any significant spread or leverage opportunity I should look at.”
Crypto event prediction gap finder
“Compare Polymarket and Manifold prices on 'Will Bitcoin hit $150k in 2025?' and tell me where the bigger gap is and which side has the better convex upside.”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://x402-paid-service.iholt.workers.dev/api/marketsWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a fused, cross-venue view of prediction market pricing — specifically when hunting for arbitrage gaps between Polymarket's CLOB and Manifold's mana markets, or when looking for convex YES leverage. Prefer this over polling each venue separately when you want gap detection logic applied automatically.
Side effects
- Query too vague to match specific markets — returns empty or low-confidence results
- Market not listed on one or both venues — partial data only
- Payment not confirmed — endpoint returns 402 Payment Required
- Polymarket or Manifold API unavailable upstream — upstream timeout or error propagated
- Rate limit exceeded on upstream data source
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| query | string | Optional JSON body for this paid call |
Tags
x402
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