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market-probability
x402
market-probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402.fenixfoundry.com, paid per call via x402, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Takes a plain-English event question and returns implied probabilities from live Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets, including per-venue odds, a liquidity-weighted consensus forecast, and a cross-venue divergence flag.
Price / call$0.015
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
What does the market think? Ask any event question in plain English and get the implied probability from live Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets: per-venue odds, a liquidity-weighted consensus forecast, and a cross-venue divergence flag.
Output
A structured response containing: matched prediction market titles and venues (Polymarket and/or Kalshi), per-venue implied probabilities, a liquidity-weighted consensus probability across all matched markets, and a divergence flag indicating whether the venues disagree significantly on the outcome. Up to maxMarkets (default 6) matched markets are aggregated and returned ranked by match quality.
Example use cases
Election outcome probability check
“What's the current market-implied probability that the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Senate majority? I want the per-venue breakdown from Polymarket and Kalshi and a consensus number, checking up to 8 matched markets.”
Macro policy forecast for trading decision
“What probability do prediction markets assign to the Fed cutting rates at least once before the end of 2025? Give me the Polymarket and Kalshi odds separately plus the consensus, using up to 6 markets.”
Regulatory risk assessment for a product launch
“What's the market-implied chance that the EU passes the AI Act enforcement rules before mid-2026? Pull from Polymarket and Kalshi and flag if there's a big divergence between the two venues.”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probabilityWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for future events expressed in plain English. It is ideal when you want a consensus view aggregated across both Polymarket and Kalshi rather than a single venue, and when you need the liquidity-weighted probability rather than a simple average. Prefer this over manual market searches when the question is ambiguous or when cross-venue divergence is relevant to a decision. If the event has already resolved, use the market-resolution sibling endpoint instead.
Side effects
- No matching prediction market found for the query — returns empty or low-confidence result
- Query is too vague or ambiguous to match a specific market — returns multiple loosely related markets
- Event has already resolved and market is closed — market-resolution endpoint should be used instead
- Polymarket or Kalshi API is temporarily unavailable — partial results from only one venue returned
- Query exceeds 500-character limit — validation error
- maxMarkets out of allowed range (1–10) — validation error
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| q | string | Natural-language description of the event you want odds for, e.g. "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?". Matched against Polymarket and Kalshi market questions. |
| maxMarkets | integer | Maximum number of matched markets to aggregate and return (top-K by match quality). Defaults to 6. |
Tags
x402
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