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Stochastic Monte Carlo Price Simulator (Heston/Merton/Kou) for TCG Cards & Tokenized Assets
x402
Stochastic Monte Carlo Price Simulator (Heston/Merton/Kou) for TCG Cards & Tokenized Assets is a paid API for AI agents from oracle.the-undesirables.com, paid per call via x402, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Runs Monte Carlo price simulations using Heston, Merton, or Kou stochastic models to project future price trajectories and percentile distributions for tokenized real-world assets and physical trading cards.
Price / call$0.015
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Predict the future market value of any collectible trading card with a conformal-calibrated risk forecast (default): regime-aware split-conformal bands fit on real holdout residuals, returning calibrated forecast percentiles (5th–95th), honest VaR/CVaR, and Safe-Hold/Momentum letter grades. Monte Carlo models (GBM / Merton Jump-Diffusion with Poisson jumps) are available opt-in via model=. Covers Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, sports cards, and any tokenized real-world asset.
Output
Returns a JSON object containing the asset name, model used, simulation count, day horizon, data source, and a percentile price distribution (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th percentile projected prices), along with call price ($0.015) and status.
Example use cases
Grading my trading card portfolio risk
“I'm holding a bunch of PSA-graded Magic cards worth about $50K total. Can you run a Monte Carlo forecast for the next quarter and give me the 5th and 95th percentile prices so I know my downside and upside?”
Evaluating a tokenized real estate investment
“I'm considering buying into a tokenized commercial property asset. Can you simulate the price distribution over six months using the Merton jump-diffusion model to see what kind of volatility swings I should expect?”
Planning a collectible card sale strategy
“I have a Yu-Gi-Oh card that's currently valued at $3,200. Run a 90-day price simulation and tell me if the momentum grade suggests I should hold or sell based on the projected price ranges.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://oracle.the-undesirables.com/api/v1/simulateWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need stochastic price projections with percentile distributions specifically for physical trading cards (Pokémon, MTG) or tokenized real-world assets, and want to choose between Heston, Merton, or Kou models. It is best for risk analysis, scenario planning, or valuation range estimation on collectible or RWA assets rather than mainstream equities or crypto tokens with deep market data.
Side effects
- Invalid or unsupported model name returns an error
- Missing required query parameters (days, current_price, card_name) cause a bad request
- Extremely high simulation counts may time out or return degraded results
- Unknown or misspelled card names may fall back to inline_fallback source with generic volatility assumptions
- Network/service unavailability returns a non-200 status
Input
{
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"days": 30,
"model": "heston",
"card_name": "Charizard Base Set PSA 8",
"simulations": 500,
"current_price": 5000
}
}
}Output
{
"data": {
"days": 30,
"model": "geometric_brownian_motion",
"card_name": "Charizard Base Set PSA 8",
"simulations": 500,
"model_params": {
"drift_mu": 0.03,
"diffusion_sigma": 0.4
},
"param_source": "default_tcg_priors",
"risk_metrics": {
"VaR_95": 4112.7231,
"CVaR_95": 3929.4773,
"VaR_95_pct": -17.75,
"CVaR_95_pct": -21.41,
"interpretation": "95% VaR: There is a 5% chance the price drops below $4112.72 (-17.75%) over 30 days. Expected Shortfall (CVaR): If that tail event occurs, the average loss lands at $3929.48 (-21.41%)."
},
"current_price": 5000,
"forecast_percentiles": {
"5th": 4112.7231,
"25th": 4581.7529,
"50th": 4979.5083,
"75th": 5416.4478,
"95th": 6040.9673
}
},
"tool": "monte_carlo",
"price": "$0.015",
"status": "ok"
}Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"status": "ok",
"forecast": {
"50th_percentile": 224.5,
"95th_percentile": 412.1
}
}
}Tags
x402
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