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Prediction Event Cross-Venue Fusion
x402
Prediction Event Cross-Venue Fusion is a paid API for AI agents from payai.agentstools.dev, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Matches the same prediction market event across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus, returning each venue's implied probability, a weighted consensus, and a divergence signal indicating disagreement between venues.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Cross-venue event fusion: match the SAME event across prediction venues (deterministic fuzzy title match + resolve-date proximity) and return each venue's implied probability, a money-type-weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal (venue disagreement, not a tradeable arbitrage).
Output
Returns a structured object containing each venue's (Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus) implied probability for the matched event, a money-type-weighted consensus probability across venues, and a forecast-divergence signal quantifying how much the venues disagree — explicitly not a tradeable arbitrage signal.
Example use cases
Election outcome probability comparison
“Look up 'Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election' across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus and show me each venue's probability and whether they're significantly diverging.”
AI milestone forecasting consensus
“What's the cross-venue consensus probability that AGI will be achieved by 2030? Pull from all the major prediction markets and tell me how much they disagree.”
Anchored Polymarket market fusion
“I have a Polymarket market ID for the Fed rate cut event — can you fuse it with Manifold and Metaculus forecasts for the same event and give me the weighted consensus and divergence score?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://payai.agentstools.dev/prediction/eventWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a multi-venue consensus probability for a specific prediction market event, especially when you want to detect disagreement between venues or get a money-weighted aggregate forecast rather than relying on a single prediction market. Prefer this over querying Polymarket or Manifold individually when cross-venue comparison or divergence detection is the goal.
Side effects
- Event query too ambiguous to match any market across venues — returns no results or low-confidence matches
- Venue-specific market unavailable or offline — partial results with missing venue probabilities
- Provided market_id does not correspond to a known event on the specified venue — lookup failure
- No cross-venue match found within resolve-date proximity — empty fusion result
- Rate limit or payment failure — 402 or 429 response
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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