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Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecast
x402
Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecast is a paid API for AI agents from agent402.tools, paid per call via x402, $0.001/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Applies simple exponential smoothing to a numeric time series and returns level-only forecasts for a specified future horizon
Price / call$0.001
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Simple exponential smoothing (SES) - level-only forecast for series without trend or seasonality. Higher alpha (closer to 1) tracks recent values aggressively; lower alpha (closer to 0) smooths through noise. Default alpha=0.3 is a common conservative pick; pass an explicit alpha or use forecast-eval to pick the one that minimizes backtest error. Forecast is flat (= last fitted level) for all horizons.
Output
Returns smoothed forecast values for the requested number of future periods, computed via the SES algorithm applied to the input chronological series with the specified alpha parameter.
Example use cases
Example prompt
“Can you use simple exponential smoothing to forecast the next 12 periods of this monthly sales series — [120, 135, 128, 142, 150, 147, 160, 155, 170, 165, 180, 175, 190] — with an alpha of 0.4?”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://agent402.tools/api/forecast-sesWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you have a stationary time series with no clear trend or seasonality and want a simple, interpretable forecast. Ideal for smoothing noisy data with controllable reactivity via alpha. Prefer over ARIMA or Holt-Winters when simplicity and speed matter more than modeling complex patterns.
Side effects
- Series has fewer than 3 values — returns validation error
- Alpha is outside the (0, 1) range — returns parameter error
- Horizon exceeds 1000 — returns out-of-range error
- Series length exceeds 10000 elements — returns payload too large error
- Non-numeric values in the series — returns type error
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| alpha | number | Smoothing parameter, 0 < alpha < 1 (default 0.3) |
| values | array | Numeric series in chronological order (max 10000, min 3) |
| horizon | number | Number of future periods to forecast (1 to 1000) |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"n": 10,
"alpha": 0.3,
"method": "ses",
"horizon": 3,
"forecast": [
{
"step": 1,
"point": 45.4431,
"lower95": 42.7805,
"upper95": 48.1057
},
{
"step": 2,
"point": 45.4431,
"lower95": 42.6633,
"upper95": 48.2229
},
{
"step": 3,
"point": 45.4431,
"lower95": 42.5508,
"upper95": 48.3354
}
]
}
}Tags
x402
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