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Weather Ensemble Forecast with Model Disagreement
x402
Weather Ensemble Forecast with Model Disagreement is a paid API for AI agents from wetter.halowerk.com, paid per call via x402, $0.005/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Returns per-hour multi-model ensemble statistics (median, p15/p85 band, min/max, model count, agreement score, rain probability, frost assessment) plus active DWD warnings for a given lat/lon point.
Price / call$0.005
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Single models are everywhere. This is the disagreement between them: per hour a median with a p15/p85 band, the full min/max spread, how many models still carry that hour, an agreement score, rain probability derived from pooled ensemble members rather than one deterministic run, a frost assessment, and the official DWD warnings in force for the point.
Output
A structured hourly time-series for each requested variable containing: median value, p15 and p85 percentile band, minimum and maximum across all active models, the number of models contributing at that hour, a model agreement score (0–1), ensemble-derived rain probability, a frost flag, and a list of any active official DWD meteorological warnings for the grid cell containing the requested coordinates.
Example use cases
Outdoor event weather risk assessment
“I'm organizing an outdoor concert in Hamburg this Saturday and Sunday. Can you pull the ensemble model spread for temperature and precipitation for both days, and tell me how much the models agree — plus flag any DWD warnings currently in force for that area?”
Frost risk monitoring for agriculture
“Check the ensemble forecast for apparent temperature and precipitation overnight for the next 5 days at lat 48.37, lon 10.89 — I need to know the frost risk assessment and whether models agree on sub-zero conditions.”
Extreme wind uncertainty for offshore operations
“What's the disagreement between ECMWF, GFS, and ICON EU on wind speed and gusts at 54.5°N, 8.1°E for the next 7 days? I need the p15/p85 band and the min/max spread per hour to assess operational risk.”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://wetter.halowerk.com/ensembleWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when uncertainty quantification matters — not just a single-model point forecast, but the spread and disagreement between 12 major NWP models. Ideal for risk-sensitive decisions (agriculture, events, aviation, offshore operations) where knowing how much models agree is as important as the forecast itself. Prefer this over single-model forecast APIs when you need probabilistic rain estimates, frost risk flags, or official DWD warnings alongside the statistical ensemble envelope.
Side effects
- Fewer than 2 models specified — API requires at least 2 models for a meaningful ensemble
- Coordinates out of range (lat > 90, lon > 180) — validation error
- More than 8 variables requested — maxItems constraint violation
- Hours exceeding 168 — beyond 7-day maximum horizon
- Short-range models (e.g. ICON D2) dropping out beyond their own forecast horizon, reducing model count in later hours
- DWD warnings unavailable for locations outside Germany — may return empty warnings array
- Slow or unavailable upstream model feeds causing incomplete ensemble data
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| lat | number | Latitude in decimal degrees. |
| lon | number | Longitude in decimal degrees. |
| hours | integer | Forecast hours, up to 168 (seven days). Short range models drop out beyond their own horizon; the per hour "models" count shows it. |
| models | array | Restrict the comparison to a subset of the twelve models. At least two, because a comparison of one model is just a forecast. |
| timezone | string | IANA zone name for the returned timestamps, for example Europe/Berlin. |
| variables | array | Which variables to compare. wind_direction_10m is aggregated as a circular mean with a directional consensus, weather_code as a majority vote; every other variable gets median, p15, p85, min, max and spread. |
Tags
x402
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