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x402-factory Fed Chair Change Evergreen Probability
x402
x402-factory Fed Chair Change Evergreen Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).
Returns the live consensus probability that the Fed chair will change this year, auto-rolling to the next annual instance on resolution.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Live probability: Will the Fed chair change this year? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will the Fed chair change this year? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.
Output
Returns a JSON object with a consensus probability (0–1) for the Fed chair changing this year, per-venue breakdown from Kalshi and Polymarket (implied probability, 24h volume, liquidity score), cross-venue divergence, last 1-hour probability move, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, the current market slug, and the timestamp at which the question rolls to the next annual instance.
Example use cases
Macro research briefing on Fed risk
“Pull the latest prediction market odds on a Fed chair change this year, including how Kalshi and Polymarket differ and whether the probability has moved in the last hour.”
Political risk alert for portfolio manager
“I need to know right now what the consensus probability is that the Fed chair gets replaced this year — show me the cross-market view and any recent moves.”
Evergreen tracker for recurring question
“What's the auto-rolling market probability for a Fed chair change this year, and when does the current contract resolve and roll to the next one?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/fed-chair-change-this-yearWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a single, always-current, auto-rolling URL for the Fed chair change question without manually tracking which yearly contract is active. Prefer it over querying Kalshi or Polymarket directly when you want a pre-aggregated cross-venue consensus with divergence signals and automatic roll-forward on resolution.
Side effects
- No active market found for the current year — endpoint may return a 404 or empty data if the underlying market has not yet been created for the new year
- Stale data if upstream venues (Kalshi, Polymarket) are temporarily unavailable
- Payment required (402) if x402 micropayment header is missing or insufficient
- High divergence between venues may indicate low liquidity on one side, reducing reliability of the consensus probability
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "fed-chair-replaced-2026",
"topic": "fed-chair-change-this-year",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the Fed chair be replaced or step down in 2026?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.0783,
"market_id": "fed-chair-replaced-2026",
"volume_24h_usd": 54305.26,
"liquidity_score": 0.839
}
],
"divergence": 0,
"probability": 0.0783,
"current_slug": "fed-chair-replaced-2026",
"last_move_1h": -0.0003,
"topic_question": "Will the Fed chair change this year?",
"resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve chair leaves office for any reason during 2026."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.fed-chair-change-this-year",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/fed-chair-change-this-year",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.087Z"
}
}
}Tags
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