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x402-factory Weather Market Edge Analysis
x402
x402-factory Weather Market Edge Analysis is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.1/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Returns a deep model-vs-market breakdown for a single weather prediction market, including model probability, discretized distribution, divergence history, half-Kelly sizing hint, and risk notes.
Price / call$0.1
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Deep model-vs-market breakdown for one weather market — Full divergence picture for a single weather market: model probability with the discretized model distribution, divergence history from stored signals, a half-Kelly sizing hint, and explicit risk notes (including model labeling). Find slugs via /v1/edge/weather-markets.
Output
Returns a JSON object with: model_p (model probability 0-1), market_p (market-implied probability 0-1), model_distribution (array of {value, p} pairs representing the discretized model distribution), divergence_history (array of {t, divergence} timestamped records), kelly_fraction_hint (half-Kelly sizing fraction capped at 0.25), and risk_notes (array of strings flagging model labeling and other risks). A meta object is also returned.
Example use cases
Sizing a weather market bet
“For the weather market slug 'nyc-rain-over-1in-july4', give me the model probability versus what the market is pricing, the divergence history, and the half-Kelly fraction so I can figure out how much to stake.”
Spotting mispriced weather contracts
“Run the edge analysis on 'miami-hurricane-landfall-sep' and tell me if the model thinks the market is mispriced — I want the full divergence picture and any risk notes flagged.”
Monitoring persistent model-market gaps
“Check the divergence history on the weather market 'dallas-freeze-below-32-jan20' and tell me whether the gap between model and market has been widening or closing recently, and what the current Kelly hint is.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/edge/:slugWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need the full quantitative picture for a single weather market — not just a blended probability (use the Kalshi/Polymarket blend endpoint for that) but the model's own distribution, the historical divergence trend, and a position-sizing hint. Ideal for agents making or evaluating trade decisions on weather prediction contracts.
Side effects
- Invalid or unknown slug returns an error — use /v1/edge/weather-markets to find valid slugs
- Market not yet resolved or no stored signals may return empty divergence_history
- Payment failure (x402 protocol) results in 402 response requiring 0.1 USDC
- Slug format mismatch (must match ^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$) returns validation error
- Model data unavailable for very new or illiquid markets
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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