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Degenscan Intel Binary Market Forecaster
x402
Degenscan Intel Binary Market Forecaster is a paid API for AI agents from intel.degenscan.io, paid per call via x402, $0.25/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-01).
Returns a calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question using Monte Carlo simulation of LLM agent societies combined with base-rate-anchored expert panel synthesis, grounded in live market data.
Price / call$0.25
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Cross-asset market event intelligence for AI trading agents. Priced routes return HTTP 402 with x402 v2 payment requirements (USDC on Base) unless X-API-KEY is sent or the free trial header X-Free-Trial: 1 is present (100 calls/day/IP). Information and analytics only — not investment advice.
Output
An async job is initiated (HTTP 202) returning a forecast_id and poll URL. On completion, the result includes: a calibrated YES probability (e.g. 0.319), an 80% confidence interval (e.g. [0.24, 0.41]), the base rate used for anchoring, the current market odds, the edge vs market (e.g. -0.031), a confidence level string, and a SHA-256 commitment hash for auditability. Results are backed by a public Brier score track record.
Example use cases
Polymarket edge hunting for crypto traders
“I want to know if there's edge on the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin exceed $120k before August 1, 2025?' — run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations with 5 rounds and a population of 30, resolving August 1, 2025, and tell me the fair probability vs current market odds.”
Macro event probability for trading desk
“What's the calibrated probability that US CPI comes in above 3.5% for the June 2025 print? Use 500 runs and 4 rounds with a population of 20 agents, resolving June 11, 2025 — I need the 80% confidence interval and base rate too.”
Geopolitical binary forecast for risk model
“Forecast whether the EU will impose new sanctions on Russia before December 31, 2025 — run 750 simulations with 3 rounds and 25 agents, and give me the edge against current prediction market odds along with the key probability drivers.”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a statistically calibrated probability for a binary yes/no market question, especially when you want to compare against existing Polymarket odds to identify edge. It is superior to simple sentiment analysis or price-based heuristics because it combines Monte Carlo LLM agent simulation with base-rate anchoring and live market data. Best suited for prediction market traders, quantitative researchers, and AI trading agents that need a defensible probability estimate with a confidence interval and an audit trail via commitment hash.
Side effects
- Payment not received (HTTP 402) — x402 payment of $0.25 USDC required before forecast is processed
- Invalid question format or ambiguous binary framing — returns validation error
- Resolution date in the past or malformed ISO timestamp — returns 422
- Simulation timeout if runs/rounds/population are set very high — eta_s may be long; poll until done
- Poll endpoint returns 'queued' or 'running' until computation completes — agents must poll asynchronously
- Network error or service downtime — retry with exponential backoff
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| runs | number | |
| rounds | number | |
| context | string | |
| question | string | |
| population | number | |
| resolves_at | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"poll": "/v1/oracle/forecast/3f9a1c2b7d4e",
"eta_s": 150,
"status": "queued",
"forecast_id": "3f9a1c2b7d4e",
"done_example": {
"ci80": [
0.24,
0.41
],
"edge": -0.031,
"base_rate": 0.227,
"confidence": "medium",
"market_odds": 0.35,
"probability": 0.319,
"commitment_hash": "sha256…"
}
}
}Tags
x402
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