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Kronos BTC Options-Implied Probability
x402
Kronos BTC Options-Implied Probability is a paid API for AI agents from kronossignals.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-13).
Returns the options-market-implied probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will be above each specified strike price at a given target time, derived from Deribit's live options order book using skew-inclusive call-spread digitals.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Options-implied probability that BTC or ETH is above each given price at a target time, from the Deribit option book (skew-inclusive call-spread digitals): the options market's fair value for Kalshi/Polymarket crypto threshold contracts, not a forecast. Query: strikes=85000,90000 (up to 25), at=ISO time or Unix. $0.02 USDC via x402.
Output
A list of strike prices mapped to their options-implied probabilities (0–1 or percentage) that BTC will be above each strike at the specified target time. Values are derived from skew-inclusive call-spread digital pricing on the Deribit options book, representing the risk-neutral market consensus, not a directional forecast.
Example use cases
Pricing a Kalshi BTC threshold contract
“I'm looking at a Kalshi contract that pays out if BTC is above $90,000 on January 31st — what probability does the Deribit options market assign to that happening? Check strikes at 85000 and 90000 for January 31 at midnight UTC.”
Multi-strike BTC probability sweep
“Give me the options-implied probabilities that BTC is above $80,000, $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 as of next Friday at 8pm UTC — I want to see the full probability curve across those strikes.”
Polymarket fair value cross-check
“There's a Polymarket contract asking whether BTC will be above $88,000 by March 1st. What does the Deribit options book say the fair probability is? I want to know if the market is mispriced.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need the options market's risk-neutral probability for BTC crossing specific price thresholds at a defined future time — especially when pricing or cross-checking Kalshi, Polymarket, or other prediction market contracts on BTC. It is preferable to ML forecasts when you want a market-consensus, arbitrage-consistent probability rather than a model-based directional prediction. Best for quantitative traders, prediction market arbitrageurs, and agents that need fair-value benchmarks for binary crypto outcome contracts.
Side effects
- Invalid or malformed strike prices — API may reject non-numeric or out-of-range strikes
- Target time too far in the future — no liquid Deribit options may exist at that expiry
- More than 25 strikes requested — exceeds the documented per-call limit
- Invalid ISO timestamp or Unix time format for the 'at' parameter
- Payment not received or insufficient USDC — x402 payment flow fails, 402 returned
- Deribit options book unavailable or illiquid — may return null or error for strikes with no options data
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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