LoneStarOracle WeatherOracle — Ensemble Temperature Probability API

Choose this endpoint when you need calibrated, multi-model ensemble temperature exceedance probabilities specifically aligned to NWS ASOS station coordinates used by Kalshi and Polymarket settlement. It is superior to single-model forecasts or generic weather APIs for prediction market trading decisions because it blends 80 ensemble members across 7 models, applies both empirical and Gumbel methods, detects method divergence, and explicitly outputs a trade signal (YES/NO/PASS). Not suitable for general weather lookup, precipitation forecasts, or non-temperature markets.

• City not recognized or not mappable to an NWS ASOS settlement station — returns error or null result
• Date too far in future beyond ensemble forecast horizon — reduced confidence or no data
• Method divergence >0.15 forces trade signal to PASS even when probability is extreme
• Missing required query parameters (city, date, threshold) — likely 400 bad request
• Open-Meteo upstream model data unavailable — partial ensemble or degraded confidence