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ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test
x402
ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test is a paid API for AI agents from manylives.me, paid per call via x402, $0.03/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-10).
Returns statistical significance metrics (p-value, Holm-adjusted p-value, hit rate, verdict) for a given trading strategy ID to determine whether its performance is genuine or attributable to luck.
Price / call$0.03
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
No forms, no dropdowns. Describe the outcome in plain words and the Brain asks what it must, lists the job, collects offers and recommends one.
Output
A JSON object containing the strategy ID, number of calls evaluated, the time window assessed, the raw one-sided p-value, the Holm-adjusted p-value (correcting for multiple strategy testing), the hit rate, and a plain-English verdict explaining whether the performance looks genuine or could be attributed to luck given how many strategies were tested.
Example use cases
Validating a crypto strategy before going live
“Before I start trading strategy CRY-1h-042 with real money, can you check its track record and tell me if its 52% hit rate is statistically significant or could just be luck across all time?”
30-day significance check after a hot streak
“Strategy CRY-5m-001 has been killing it lately — can you run the luck test on its track record for the last 30 days and give me the p-value and verdict?”
Multi-strategy false discovery screening
“I've been backtesting dozens of strategies and want to know if strategy CRY-1h-042 still looks good after correcting for multiple comparisons — what does the Holm-adjusted p-value say over the full history?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need to determine whether a specific trading strategy's historical hit rate is statistically significant after correcting for multiple-hypothesis bias (Holm adjustment). Prefer this over a simple win-rate lookup when you want a rigorous, bias-corrected verdict rather than raw performance numbers. It is especially valuable after running many strategy backtests, where naive p-values are misleading.
Side effects
- Missing or invalid strategy ID returns an error — the 'id' query parameter is required
- Unknown strategy ID returns no data or a 404-equivalent
- Invalid window value (not one of: 7d, 30d, 3m, 1y, all) may default to 'all' or return an error
- Insufficient call count for a strategy may yield unreliable statistics
- Payment failure via x402 protocol results in a 402 response before data is returned
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"id": "CRY-1h-042",
"calls": 2400,
"window": "all time",
"verdict": "looks good on its own, but could be luck once you allow for how many strategies were tested",
"hit_rate": 0.523,
"holm_adjusted_p": 0.9,
"p_value_one_sided": 0.012
}
}Tags
x402
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