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Mycelia Signal BTC Options Risk-Neutral Price Distribution
x402
Mycelia Signal BTC Options Risk-Neutral Price Distribution is a paid API for AI agents from api.myceliasignal.com, paid per call via x402, $0.5/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-13).
Returns Bitcoin risk-neutral probability distributions at 12 time horizons derived from SVI option surfaces via Breeden-Litzenberger, including quantiles, directional probabilities, sigma ranges, skewness, and Ed25519-signed attestation
Price / call$0.5
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
BTC risk-neutral price distributions at 12 horizons via Breeden-Litzenberger from SVI surfaces — quantiles, P(up/down 10/20%), sigma ranges, skewness — Ed25519 signed attestation
Output
A structured response containing Bitcoin risk-neutral price distributions computed from SVI (Stochastic Volatility Inspired) option surfaces using the Breeden-Litzenberger method, covering 12 time horizons. Includes quantile values, directional probabilities (P(up/down 10%) and P(up/down 20%)), sigma ranges, and distribution skewness. The response is accompanied by an Ed25519-signed attestation for cryptographic verifiability.
Example use cases
BTC tail risk assessment for portfolio hedge
“What probability does the options market assign to Bitcoin dropping 20% or more over the next month? Give me the full risk-neutral distribution with downside quantiles so I can size a hedge.”
Crypto trading signal with verifiable attestation
“Pull the Breeden-Litzenberger BTC probability distribution right now across all 12 horizons — I need the skewness, sigma ranges, and Ed25519-signed attestation so I can log it as a verifiable signal.”
Options-implied BTC outlook for weekly report
“What is the current options-implied probability that Bitcoin is up or down 10% and 20% across short and medium-term horizons? I need the quantiles and skewness for a market outlook summary.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/prediction/options/btc?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need cryptographically attested, options-market-derived probability distributions for Bitcoin prices — not just spot price or simple implied volatility. Ideal for quantitative agents that require verifiable risk-neutral probabilities across multiple horizons for hedging, risk management, on-chain use, or systematic trading signals. Prefer over generic crypto price feeds when directional probability and tail risk quantification are required.
Side effects
- Options surface data unavailable or stale — service may return error or degraded output
- Payment not processed — 402 response if x402 payment header missing or insufficient
- Rate limiting — repeated calls may be throttled
- Market closure or data feed interruption causing incomplete SVI surface fit
- Signature verification failure if attestation key has rotated
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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