PreReason - Bitcoin Factor Attribution API

x402

PreReason - Bitcoin Factor Attribution API is a paid API for AI agents from api.prereason.com, paid per call via x402, $0.03/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-11).

Returns a structured attribution breakdown of what is driving BTC price movements: macro factors, on-chain activity, or sentiment signals.

Price / call$0.03

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How this service works

Bitcoin price drivers. Multi-factor attribution across macro, on-chain, and sentiment. BTC causation analysis for research and trading agents.

Output

Returns a structured JSON (or markdown) object containing Bitcoin price context, factor attribution signals identifying whether macro, on-chain, or sentiment is the primary driver, confidence scores per factor, and trend signals. Includes a generated_at timestamp and the briefing ID for reference.

Example use cases

Example prompt

“Can you pull the PreReason btc.factors briefing to break down what's driving Bitcoin's price right now — is it macro, on-chain activity, or sentiment — and give me the results in JSON format?”

Technical details

Endpoint

GEThttps://api.prereason.com/api/btc/factors?utm_source=zero.xyz

When to prefer

Use this endpoint when you specifically need to understand WHAT is driving Bitcoin price — not just what the price is. It is ideal for investment reasoning, report generation, or agent decision-making where cause attribution matters. Prefer over btc.quick-check (price snapshot only) or btc.momentum (trend direction only) when the user needs a causal or factor-level explanation of BTC price dynamics.

Side effects

Invalid briefing ID returns 400 error
Date outside tier access range returns 403 or tier upgrade prompt
Missing required 'briefing' query parameter returns 400
Payment failure (x402) returns 402 Payment Required
Invalid date format returns 400 with pattern validation error
Server unavailable returns 503

Input

{
  "input": {
    "type": "http",
    "method": "GET",
    "queryParams": {
      "format": "json",
      "briefing": "btc.factors"
    }
  }
}

Schema · Request body

Field	Type	Description
inputrequired	object
output	object

Output

{
  "date": "2026-06-12",
  "_timing": {
    "total_ms": 744,
    "computedAt": "2026-06-12T04:46:26.001Z",
    "metrics_ms": 267,
    "correlations_ms": 477,
    "tier_features_ms": 0
  },
  "metrics": {
    "dxy": {
      "name": "dxy",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "steady",
        "change_7d": 0.43,
        "direction": "flat",
        "change_30d": 1.78,
        "change_90d": 0.83,
        "percentile": 50,
        "percentile_label": "average"
      },
      "signal": "below-trend",
      "context": "Dollar strength (UUP) stable at 27.95. Consolidating: neutral dollar backdrop.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-11T19:45:14+00:00",
      "confidence": 56,
      "regulatory_mode": "descriptive",
      "value_formatted": "27.95",
      "confidence_label": "Medium",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 100,
        "percentile_score": 0,
        "trend_consistency": 20
      }
    },
    "spy": {
      "name": "spy",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "accelerating",
        "change_7d": -2.44,
        "direction": "falling",
        "change_30d": 0.18,
        "change_90d": 10.57,
        "percentile": 99,
        "percentile_label": "extremely high"
      },
      "signal": "above-trend",
      "context": "S&P 500 (SPY) at $739.27, -2.4% over 7d, falling. Decelerating: equity market weakness.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-11T19:45:16+00:00",
      "confidence": 76,
      "regulatory_mode": "descriptive",
      "value_formatted": "$739.27",
      "confidence_label": "High",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 100,
        "percentile_score": 100,
        "trend_consistency": 20
      }
    },
    "tga": {
      "name": "tga",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "accelerating",
        "change_7d": -5.43,
        "direction": "falling",
        "change_30d": -1.25,
        "change_90d": -2.92,
        "percentile": 92,
        "percentile_label": "extremely high"
      },
      "signal": "above-trend",
      "context": "Treasury General Account stable at $828.12B. Consolidating: neutral liquidity impact.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-10T00:00:00+00:00",
      "confidence": 69,
      "regulatory_mode": "descriptive",
      "value_formatted": "$828.12B",
      "confidence_label": "Medium",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 30,
        "signal_strength": 100,
        "percentile_score": 100,
        "trend_consistency": 20
      }
    },
    "fed-balance": {
      "name": "fed-balance",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "steady",
        "change_7d": 0.21,
        "direction": "flat",
        "change_30d": -0.05,
        "change_90d": 1.19,
        "percentile": 79,
        "percentile_label": "high"
      },
      "signal": "at-trend",
      "context": "Fed balance sheet stable at $6.73T, -0.1% over 30d. Consolidating: neutral liquidity conditions.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-10T00:00:00+00:00",
      "confidence": 49,
      "regulatory_mode": "descriptive",
      "value_formatted": "$6.73T",
      "confidence_label": "Medium",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 30,
        "signal_strength": 38,
        "percentile_score": 2,
        "trend_consistency": 100
      }
    },
    "hash-ribbon": {
      "name": "hash-ribbon",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "steady",
        "change_7d": -0.02,
        "direction": "flat",
        "change_30d": -0.02,
        "change_90d": -0.05,
        "percentile": 11,
        "percentile_label": "low"
      },
      "signal": "bearish",
      "context": "Hash Ribbon at 0.9866 (bearish, day 3).",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-12T04:05:42.328+00:00",
      "confidence": 44,
      "regulatory_mode": "signal",
      "value_formatted": "0.987",
      "confidence_label": "Low",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 19,
        "percentile_score": 97,
        "trend_consistency": 25
      }
    },
    "bitcoin-price": {
      "name": "bitcoin-price",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "steady",
        "change_7d": -0.2,
        "direction": "flat",
        "change_30d": -20.92,
        "change_90d": -10.57,
        "percentile": 69,
        "percentile_label": "above average"
      },
      "signal": "neutral",
      "context": "BTC at $63,626, flat over 7d. Consolidating.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-12T04:42:29+00:00",
      "confidence": 49,
      "regulatory_mode": "signal",
      "value_formatted": "$63,626",
      "confidence_label": "Medium",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 42,
        "percentile_score": 22,
        "trend_consistency": 60
      }
    },
    "net-liquidity": {
      "name": "net-liquidity",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "steady",
        "change_7d": 0.42,
        "direction": "flat",
        "change_30d": 1.14,
        "change_90d": 1.53,
        "percentile": 64,
        "percentile_label": "moderate growth"
      },
      "signal": "neutral",
      "context": "Net liquidity stable at $5.90T. Consolidating.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-12T04:05:42.328+00:00",
      "confidence": 64,
      "regulatory_mode": "signal",
      "value_formatted": "$5.90T",
      "confidence_label": "Medium",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 44,
        "percentile_score": 32,
        "trend_consistency": 100
      }
    },
    "bitcoin-hash-rate": {
      "name": "bitcoin-hash-rate",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "accelerating",
        "change_7d": -5.9,
        "direction": "falling",
        "change_30d": 7.77,
        "change_90d": 1,
        "percentile": 34,
        "percentile_label": "below-average growth"
      },
      "signal": "neutral",
      "context": "Hash rate at 932.13 EH/s, down 5.9% over 7d. Decelerating: miner stress or difficulty adjustment, capacity going offline.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-12T00:00:00+00:00",
      "confidence": 39,
      "regulatory_mode": "signal",
      "value_formatted": "932.13 EH/s",
      "confidence_label": "Low",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 44,
        "percentile_score": 28,
        "trend_consistency": 20
      }
    },
    "bitcoin-volume-24h": {
      "name": "bitcoin-volume-24h",
      "trend": {
        "momentum": "accelerating",
        "change_7d": -55.72,
        "direction": "falling",
        "change_30d": -12.1,
        "change_90d": 23.95,
        "percentile": 66,
        "percentile_label": "above average"
      },
      "signal": "neutral",
      "context": "BTC 24h volume at $29.00B, down 55.7% vs 7d avg. Decelerating interest.",
      "timestamp": "2026-06-12T04:42:29+00:00",
      "confidence": 39,
      "regulatory_mode": "signal",
      "value_formatted": "$29.00B",
      "confidence_label": "Low",
      "confidence_factors": {
        "data_quality": 100,
        "signal_strength": 44,
        "percentile_score": 28,
        "trend_consistency": 20
      }
    }
  },
  "correlations": {
    "bitcoin-price_vs_dxy": {
      "pair": "bitcoin-price_vs_dxy",
      "value": -0.29,
      "metric1": "bitcoin-price",
      "metric2": "dxy",
      "interpretation": "BTC weak negative correlation with Dollar Strength (UUP) (-0.29)"
    },
    "bitcoin-price_vs_spy": {
      "pair": "bitcoin-price_vs_spy",
      "value": 0.48,
      "metric1": "bitcoin-price",
      "metric2": "spy",
      "interpretation": "BTC moderately correlated with S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.48)"
    },
    "bitcoin-price_vs_net-liquidity": {
      "pair": "bitcoin-price_vs_net-liquidity",
      "value": 0.05,
      "metric1": "bitcoin-price",
      "metric2": "net-liquidity",
      "interpretation": "BTC uncorrelated with Net Liquidity (+0.05) - independent movement"
    }
  },
  "data_quality": {
    "severity": "ok",
    "health_score": 100,
    "metrics_total": 9,
    "metrics_available": 9,
    "correlations_total": 3,
    "unavailable_metrics": [],
    "correlations_computable": 3,
    "unavailable_correlations": []
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-06-12T04:46:26.001Z",
  "_tier_context": {
    "your_tier": "free",
    "related_briefings": [
      {
        "id": "btc.momentum",
        "tier": "basic",
        "description": "Adds percentile rankings, extended 90d momentum"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.on-chain",
        "tier": "basic",
        "description": "Adds percentile rankings, extended 90d momentum"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.miner-survival",
        "tier": "basic",
        "description": "Adds percentile rankings, extended 90d momentum"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.full",
        "tier": "pro",
        "description": "Adds percentile rankings, extended 90d momentum"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.factors",
        "tier": "pro",
        "description": "Adds rule-based \"why is bitcoin moving\" with contributing macro and on-chain factors"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.energy",
        "tier": "pro",
        "description": "Adds percentile rankings, extended 90d momentum"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.treasury",
        "tier": "pro",
        "description": "Adds corporate bitcoin treasury holdings"
      },
      {
        "id": "btc.etf-flows",
        "tier": "basic",
        "description": "Adds percentile rankings, extended 90d momentum"
      }
    ],
    "higher_tier_features": [
      "Percentile rankings (Basic+)",
      "Extended 90d momentum (Basic+)",
      "Regime classification (Pro)",
      "Divergence detection (Pro)",
      "Extended historical data from Jan 2025 (Basic+)",
      "Full historical data access (Pro)"
    ]
  },
  "briefing_used": "btc.factors",
  "causal_reasoning": {
    "text": "Bitcoin -0.2%. Rising factors: S&P 500 -2.4% (7d): risk-off equity selloff, BTC correlated via shared flows, TGA -5.4% (7d): Treasury spending down, releasing reserves into banking system. Falling factors: .",
    "context": "Factors showing mixed directions.",
    "factors": [
      {
        "metric": "spy",
        "display_text": "S&P 500 -2.4% (7d): risk-off equity selloff, BTC correlated via shared flows",
        "interpretation": "bullish"
      },
      {
        "metric": "tga",
        "display_text": "TGA -5.4% (7d): Treasury spending down, releasing reserves into banking system",
        "interpretation": "bullish"
      }
    ],
    "confidence": 73,
    "briefing_used": "narrative_5_mixed_signals"
  },
  "briefing_metadata": {
    "name": "Factor Attribution",
    "tier": "pro",
    "data_access": "Today + last 30 days",
    "description": "Rule-based \"why is Bitcoin moving\" with contributing macro and on-chain factors",
    "metrics_count": 9,
    "correlations_count": 3,
    "earliest_usable_date": "2002-12-18",
    "correlations_window_days": 90
  }
}

Schema · Response

{
  "type": "json",
  "example": {
    "metrics": {
      "dxy": {
        "name": "dxy"
      },
      "spy": {
        "name": "spy"
      },
      "tga": {
        "name": "tga"
      },
      "etf-tlt": {
        "name": "etf-tlt"
      },
      "fed-balance": {
        "name": "fed-balance"
      },
      "hash-ribbon": {
        "name": "hash-ribbon"
      },
      "treasury-30y": {
        "name": "treasury-30y"
      },
      "bitcoin-price": {
        "name": "bitcoin-price"
      },
      "net-liquidity": {
        "name": "net-liquidity"
      },
      "bitcoin-hash-rate": {
        "name": "bitcoin-hash-rate"
      },
      "bitcoin-volume-24h": {
        "name": "bitcoin-volume-24h"
      },
      "deribit-btc-iv-30d": {
        "name": "deribit-btc-iv-30d"
      },
      "okx-btc-funding-rate": {
        "name": "okx-btc-funding-rate"
      },
      "btc-perp-oi-contracts": {
        "name": "btc-perp-oi-contracts"
      },
      "okx-btc-open-interest": {
        "name": "okx-btc-open-interest"
      },
      "btc-perp-funding-zscore-30d": {
        "name": "btc-perp-funding-zscore-30d"
      },
      "btc-perp-positioning-regime": {
        "name": "btc-perp-positioning-regime"
      }
    },
    "briefing_used": "btc.factors",
    "briefing_metadata": {
      "name": "Factor Attribution",
      "description": "Rule-based \"why is Bitcoin moving\" with macro factors (Fed balance, TGA, net liquidity, dollar), on-chain factors (hash rate, volume), BTC perp derivatives positioning (funding rate + open interest), and 30-day ATM implied volatility as a regime signal",
      "metrics_count": 17,
      "correlations_count": 6
    }
  }
}

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