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Vextorium Polymarket Crypto Implied Probability Distribution
x402
Vextorium Polymarket Crypto Implied Probability Distribution is a paid API for AI agents from api.vextorium.com, paid per call via x402, $0.004/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-29).
Returns the implied probability distribution of a crypto asset's price from Polymarket ladder markets, including per-level probabilities and an implied median price, for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.
Price / call$0.004
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Implied probability distribution of a crypto price from Polymarket ladder markets ("Will BTC be above X on date D?"): probability for each price level and date and the implied median. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.
Output
A JSON object with the asset name, a disclaimer note, and an array of events. Each event includes the event title, settlement date/time, an array of price levels with their probability-of-being-above percentage, and an approximate implied median price derived from the ladder market probabilities.
Example use cases
Crypto options desk price calibration
“Pull the Polymarket-implied probability distribution for Ethereum, including the probability of being above each price level and the implied median, so I can calibrate our options pricing model.”
Prediction market research for altcoins
“What is the Polymarket crowd implying about Solana's price distribution — give me the probability at each ladder level and the implied median price for the nearest upcoming event.”
Portfolio risk assessment via prediction markets
“For XRP, what does Polymarket's ladder market say about the chances it's above key price levels by the next settlement date, and what's the implied median?”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://api.vextorium.com/polymarket-precio-cripto-pago?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need market-implied probability distributions for crypto prices derived from real prediction market liquidity on Polymarket, rather than model-based forecasts. Prefer it over on-chain price feeds when you want crowd-sourced probability estimates across multiple future price levels, not just current spot prices. Ideal for options pricing, risk analysis, or research that requires a probability distribution rather than a point estimate.
Side effects
- Unsupported asset string returns an error or empty result — only 'bitcoin', 'ethereum', 'solana', 'xrp' are valid
- Polymarket may have no active ladder markets for the requested asset at time of call, returning an empty events array
- Stale or low-liquidity markets may produce wide probability bands or unreliable medians
- Missing 'activo' field in request body may cause validation error
- Network or upstream Polymarket API unavailability causes failure
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| activo | string | bitcoin, ethereum, solana, xrp |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"nota": "Probabilidades implícitas por el mercado; no son predicciones garantizadas. Fuente: Polymarket.",
"activo": "bitcoin",
"eventos": [
{
"cierre": "2026-10-02T21:00:00Z",
"evento": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 2, 5PM ET?",
"niveles": [
{
"nivel": 82200,
"prob_por_encima_pct": 50
},
{
"nivel": 82400,
"prob_por_encima_pct": 50
}
],
"mediana_implicita_aprox": 82200
},
{
"cierre": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z",
"evento": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 3?",
"niveles": [
{
"nivel": 74000,
"prob_por_encima_pct": 99.95
},
{
"nivel": 76000,
"prob_por_encima_pct": 99.9
}
],
"mediana_implicita_aprox": 86000
}
]
}
}Tags
x402
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