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HodlOdds Crash Odds API for Solana Memecoins
x402
HodlOdds Crash Odds API for Solana Memecoins is a paid API for AI agents from api.hodlodds.com, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-30).
Returns a probabilistic crash-odds score for a specific Solana pump.fun memecoin, estimating the likelihood of a 90%+ price drop within the next 60 minutes.
Price / call$0.01
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
0.04 means about 4 in 100 tokens like this one lose 90% or more of their price within the next 60 minutes. Higher means riskier, but a low number does not mean safe: smaller or slower drops are not counted, and the odds change minute by minute. Paid crash odds for covered SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates. Normal risk and board routes are fresh or free; the separate opt-in last-known route serves clearly labelled stored odds up to 30 minutes old. All examples are illustrative, not live predictions. Crash = a completed one-minute close in SOL at least 90% below the reference within 60 minutes. Odds, not guarantees. Not financial advice. Paid access is open only while /v1/meta reports public_beta true. Payment can use configured Solana or Base USDC via x402 v2 exact authorization; Base payment does not make experimental non-SOL token forecasts covered.
Output
A JSON object containing: the 60-minute crash probability (p_crash_60m, e.g. 0.031), a human-readable summary, confidence level and reasons, historical odds band (hi/lo/n), short-term price returns (ret_5, ret_60), trade count, reserve SOL (resq_sol), token age in minutes, market status, model ID and hashes, coverage metadata, and expiry timestamp. Also includes the crash definition and whether the token is covered.
Example use cases
Pre-trade memecoin risk check
“Before I buy into this pump.fun token — mint address 7xKXtg2CW87d97TXJSDpbD5jBkheTqA83TZRuJosgAsU — can you pull the HodlOdds crash probability so I know how risky it is right now?”
Automated portfolio crash monitoring
“Every 5 minutes, check the HodlOdds crash odds for each of the pump.fun tokens in my watchlist and alert me if any of them hit a p_crash_60m above 0.15.”
Token screening before bot entry
“My trading bot is about to enter a position on the Solana memecoin with mint Fg6PaFpoGXkYsidMpWTK6W2BeZ7FEfcYkg476zPFsLnS — pull the current 60-minute crash odds from HodlOdds and include the confidence level and the odds band so I can decide whether to proceed.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.hodlodds.com/v1/risk/%7Bmint%7D?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a fresh, per-token probabilistic crash risk score for a specific Solana pump.fun graduate token right now. Prefer this over the last-known route when you need current odds rather than cached (up to 30-min-old) data. Prefer this over the board route when you need detailed per-token metadata (confidence, odds band, returns) rather than a summary list. Note that this endpoint costs $0.01 USDC per call via x402 and only covers SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates while public beta is active.
Side effects
- Token mint not covered by HodlOdds (not a pump.fun graduate or not SOL-quoted) — returns covered: false or abstains
- Payment not provided or invalid x402 authorization — returns 402 Payment Required
- Public beta closed (/v1/meta reports public_beta false) — access denied
- Stale or unavailable model data — confidence level may be reduced or request may fail
- Invalid mint address format — likely 400 Bad Request
- Base USDC payment used for non-SOL experimental token — forecast not covered
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"row": {
"band": {
"n": 77515,
"hi": 0.05,
"lo": 0.02,
"basis": "Historical weekly BF refits, Sep 1–Oct 14 excluding Sep 20; already-seen evidence, not this frozen fit.",
"historical_observed": 0.038
},
"mint": "11111111111111111111111111111111pump",
"name": "Illustrative token",
"asset": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp/token:11111111111111111111111111111111pump",
"chain": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"dd_60": 0.96,
"ret_5": -0.014,
"ret_60": 0.023,
"symbol": "EXAMPLE",
"age_min": 240,
"summary": "3.1% chance of a 90%+ price drop within 60 minutes (about 3.1 in 100). Low odds are not a safety signal.",
"platform": "pumpfun",
"resq_sol": 125.5,
"trades_5": 32,
"chain_name": "Solana",
"confidence": {
"band": {
"n": 77515,
"hi": 0.05,
"lo": 0.02,
"obs": 0.038,
"pred": 0.0337,
"positives": 2945.57
},
"basis": "Historical validation of weekly BF refits, September 1 through October 14, 2026 excluding September 20; already-seen data, not measured calibration of the frozen serving fit.",
"level": "high",
"reasons": [],
"direction": null,
"rule_version": "hodlodds.confidence.v1"
},
"p_crash_60m": 0.031,
"market_status": "available"
},
"as_of": 1792249200,
"model": {
"id": "example-bf-frozen",
"hashes": {
"meta": "bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb",
"model": "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"
}
},
"schema": "hodlodds.answer.v1",
"covered": true,
"coverage": {
"active": 660,
"scored": 650,
"universe": "Illustrative active SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates",
"abstained": 10,
"experimental_quotes": [
"USDC",
"PUMP"
],
"experimental_scored": 75,
"experimental_abstained": 4
},
"issued_at": 1792249230,
"definition": "A crash is a completed 1-minute close in SOL at least 90% below the reference price within 60 minutes.",
"expires_at": 1792249350,
"horizon_end": 1792252800
}
}Tags
x402
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