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HodlOdds Last-Known Crash Odds API (Solana Memecoins)
x402
HodlOdds Last-Known Crash Odds API (Solana Memecoins) is a paid API for AI agents from api.hodlodds.com, paid per call via x402, $0.002/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-11-04).
Returns stored (up to 30 minutes old) crash-probability odds for a specific Solana pump.fun memecoin, indicating the likelihood of a 90%+ price drop within 60 minutes.
Price / call$0.002
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
0.04 means about 4 in 100 tokens like this one lose 90% or more of their price within the next 60 minutes. Higher means riskier, but a low number does not mean safe: smaller or slower drops are not counted, and the odds change minute by minute. Paid crash odds for covered SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates. Normal risk and board routes are fresh or free; the separate opt-in last-known route serves clearly labelled stored odds up to 30 minutes old. All examples are illustrative, not live predictions. Crash = a completed one-minute close in SOL at least 90% below the reference within 60 minutes. Odds, not guarantees. Not financial advice. Paid access is open only while /v1/meta reports public_beta true. Payment can use configured Solana or Base USDC via x402 v2 exact authorization; Base payment does not make experimental non-SOL token forecasts covered.
Output
A JSON object containing: the crash probability (p_crash_60m) as a decimal, a band with historical hi/lo/observed values, a human-readable summary, confidence level and reasons, staleness age in seconds (age_s), token metadata (name, symbol, chain, platform), market status, model ID and hashes, coverage statistics, and expiry/horizon timestamps. The 'stale: true' flag and freshness field confirm this is a cached reading, not a live prediction.
Example use cases
Quick memecoin risk check before trading
“Before I buy into this pump.fun token — mint 7xKXtg2CW87d97TXJSDpbD5jBkheTqA83TZRuJosgAsU — can you pull the last known crash odds for it? Even if the data is a bit stale that's fine, I just want a rough sense of the 60-minute dump risk.”
Automated portfolio risk monitoring
“Every 5 minutes, check the last-known crash odds for each of these Solana memecoins in my watchlist and alert me if any token's p_crash_60m goes above 0.15: 7xKX...AsU, 3mPQ...Bvz, and 9nRT...Kqw.”
Comparing risk bands across pump.fun graduates
“Pull the stored crash odds for Solana mint So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 and tell me the high and low odds band, the observed historical rate, and how stale the data is — I want to compare the confidence level across a few tokens.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.hodlodds.com/v1/risk/%7Bmint%7D/last?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, low-cost crash odds reading and can tolerate data up to 30 minutes old — ideal for monitoring workflows, batch comparisons, or when the fresh endpoint is too expensive per call. Prefer the fresh endpoint when timing is critical and you need the latest model output. Use this endpoint when you want the last available reading without waiting for a new scoring cycle.
Side effects
- Mint not covered: token is not a SOL-quoted pump.fun graduate or not in the covered universe — returns not-covered response
- Mint not found: invalid or unrecognized mint address returns an error
- Data too old: last-known data exceeds 30-minute window — endpoint may return nothing or indicate unavailability
- Payment failure: x402 payment not accepted or insufficient — returns 402 Payment Required
- Public beta closed: /v1/meta reports public_beta false — paid access unavailable
- Base USDC payment: valid payment but does not unlock experimental non-SOL token forecasts
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"row": {
"band": {
"n": 77515,
"hi": 0.05,
"lo": 0.02,
"basis": "Historical weekly BF refits, Sep 1–Oct 14 excluding Sep 20; already-seen evidence, not this frozen fit.",
"historical_observed": 0.038
},
"mint": "11111111111111111111111111111111pump",
"name": "Illustrative token",
"asset": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp/token:11111111111111111111111111111111pump",
"chain": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"dd_60": 0.96,
"ret_5": -0.014,
"ret_60": 0.023,
"symbol": "EXAMPLE",
"age_min": 240,
"summary": "Last known (10 min old): 3.1% chance of a 90%+ price drop within 60 minutes (about 3.1 in 100). Low odds are not a safety signal.",
"platform": "pumpfun",
"resq_sol": 125.5,
"trades_5": 32,
"chain_name": "Solana",
"confidence": {
"band": {
"n": 77515,
"hi": 0.05,
"lo": 0.02,
"obs": 0.038,
"pred": 0.0337,
"positives": 2945.57
},
"basis": "Historical validation of weekly BF refits, September 1 through October 14, 2026 excluding September 20; already-seen data, not measured calibration of the frozen serving fit.",
"level": "medium",
"reasons": [
"stale data: 10 min old"
],
"direction": null,
"rule_version": "hodlodds.confidence.v1"
},
"p_crash_60m": 0.031,
"market_status": "available"
},
"age_s": 600,
"as_of": 1792249200,
"model": {
"id": "example-bf-frozen",
"hashes": {
"meta": "bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb",
"model": "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"
}
},
"stale": true,
"schema": "hodlodds.answer.v1",
"covered": true,
"coverage": {
"active": 660,
"scored": 650,
"universe": "Illustrative active SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates",
"abstained": 10,
"experimental_quotes": [
"USDC",
"PUMP"
],
"experimental_scored": 75,
"experimental_abstained": 4
},
"freshness": "stale",
"issued_at": 1792249230,
"definition": "A crash is a completed 1-minute close in SOL at least 90% below the reference price within 60 minutes.",
"expires_at": 1792249350,
"horizon_end": 1792252800,
"horizon_remaining_s": 2970
}
}Tags
x402
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