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agent402.tools Naive/Mean/Drift Baseline Forecast
x402
agent402.tools Naive/Mean/Drift Baseline Forecast is a paid API for AI agents from agent402.tools, paid per call via x402, $0.001/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Generates simple baseline time-series forecasts (mean, naive, or drift methods) for a given numeric series and forecast horizon
Price / call$0.001
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Three textbook baseline forecasts: mean (forecast = average of history), naive (forecast = last value), drift (linear extrapolation from first to last point). Use as a sanity floor - any sophisticated method (SES, Holt, Holt-Winters) should beat the best of these on a backtest, otherwise the extra complexity isn't earning its keep. Returns point forecasts + 95% prediction intervals per Hyndman §3.1.
Output
Returns an array of forecasted numeric values for the requested number of future periods, computed using the selected baseline method (mean = average of all historical values, naive = last observed value repeated, drift = linear extrapolation from first to last point).
Example use cases
Example prompt
“Use the drift method to forecast the next 12 periods for this monthly sales series: [120, 135, 128, 142, 150, 163, 158, 172, 180, 195, 188, 210].”
Technical details
Endpoint
POSThttps://agent402.tools/api/forecast-naiveWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a quick, cheap sanity-floor forecast to benchmark against more sophisticated methods (SES, Holt, Holt-Winters, ARIMA). Ideal for establishing a performance baseline, validating that a complex model is actually adding value, or when you need a fast, interpretable prediction without model fitting. Best when the series is short or when you explicitly need a textbook mean, naive, or drift forecast.
Side effects
- Empty or missing values array returns validation error
- Horizon outside 1–1000 range rejected
- Values array exceeding 10,000 elements rejected
- Non-numeric values in array cause parse error
- Invalid method string (not 'mean', 'naive', or 'drift') returns error
- Payment failure (x402) blocks request if USDC balance is insufficient
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| method | string | "mean", "naive", or "drift" (default "drift") |
| values | array | Numeric series in chronological order (max 10000) |
| horizon | number | Number of future periods to forecast (1 to 1000) |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"n": 10,
"method": "drift",
"horizon": 3,
"forecast": [
{
"step": 1,
"point": 23.3333,
"lower95": 21.8037,
"upper95": 24.863
},
{
"step": 2,
"point": 24.6667,
"lower95": 22.3979,
"upper95": 26.9355
},
{
"step": 3,
"point": 26,
"lower95": 23.0977,
"upper95": 28.9023
}
]
}
}Tags
x402
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