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polls.karbach.digital — Constituency Race Simulation
x402
polls.karbach.digital — Constituency Race Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).
Returns Monte-Carlo win probabilities, first-vote projections, and race ratings for a specific German Bundestag constituency based on 10,000 simulated scenarios.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.
Output
A JSON object containing: win probabilities (0–1) for each party, first-vote percentage projections per party, the projected favourite, race rating (sicher/wahrscheinlich/umkämpft), expected margin in percentage points, incumbent party, state (Bundesland), election identifier, simulation metadata (n=10,000, method, sigma), data source attribution, and last-updated timestamp. Updated every 6 hours.
Example use cases
Journalist covering swing constituencies
“I'm writing about competitive races in the upcoming Bundestagswahl — what are the win probabilities and race rating for constituency 61, and is it considered safe, likely, or contested?”
Researcher tracking incumbent vulnerability
“Can you pull the Monte-Carlo simulation results for Wahlkreis 200? I want to see the incumbent party, the current favourite, and the expected margin so I can assess how at risk the seat is.”
Citizen checking home district forecast
“I live in Wahlkreis 75 — can you tell me who is projected to win the first vote there and what the probability is for each party based on the latest simulation?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/%7Bnr%7D/race?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need constituency-level (Wahlkreis) direct-mandate win probabilities and race ratings for German federal elections, backed by a calibrated Monte-Carlo model with 10,000 scenarios. Prefer this over national-level poll aggregators when the user's question is about a specific constituency's competitiveness, the favourite for the first vote (Erststimme), or the incumbent's chances — rather than national seat projections or coalition arithmetic.
Side effects
- Invalid or out-of-range constituency number returns an error or empty response
- Constituency number not covered by the 18 simulated elections returns no data
- Stale data during the 6-hour refresh window — projections may lag very recent poll releases
- Rate limiting or payment failure if x402 micropayment is not processed correctly
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"state": "SL",
"rating": "sicher",
"election": "btw-2029",
"favourite": "AfD",
"constituency": 299,
"incumbent_party": "CDU/CSU",
"win_probability": {
"AfD": 0.6933,
"FDP": 0,
"SPD": 0.1901,
"Linke": 0.0002,
"CDU/CSU": 0.1164
},
"first_vote_projection": {
"AfD": 32.21,
"FDP": 3.62,
"SPD": 26.13,
"Linke": 8.91,
"CDU/CSU": 21.86
},
"expected_margin_points": 6.78
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": {
"method": "MC-Sampling pro WK, n=10000 Iterationen, σ_total 4.08 Pp = √(UNS² 2.77 + Personen² 3.00) · Inkumbenz-Bonus +3.0 Pp auf den BTW-2025-Direktmandatsinhaber",
"samples": 10000
},
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"source": {
"polls": "dawum.de",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
},
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"updated_at": "2026-10-18T12:55:10.873908",
"uncertainty": "Win probabilities from simulation with correlated errors and per-party sigma; rating: sicher, wahrscheinlich, umkämpft."
}
}Tags
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