polls.karbach.digital Track Record

x402

polls.karbach.digital Track Record is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns the validated backtesting track record of a German election Monte-Carlo forecast model, including MAE, winner accuracy, and per-election results calibrated against 34 historical elections.

Price / call$0.01

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StatusUnknown

How this service works

Frozen forecasts versus official results, 2026 out of sample and 34-election backtest. Use when asked how reliable these forecasts were in past elections. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.

Output

A JSON object containing: a backtest summary over 34 historical German elections (MAE ~1.27, Brier score, 95% CI hit rate, winner accuracy), a 2026 election summary with per-election frozen forecasts versus official results, methodology description, data source attribution (dawum.de, ODbL 1.0), and a last-updated timestamp. Forecasts are frozen 8 days before each election and compared against official results.

Example use cases

Validating German election forecast accuracy

“What is the overall accuracy of the Karbach German election simulation model? I want the MAE, winner prediction rate, and CI hit rate from the full 34-election backtest.”

Comparing 2026 state election forecasts to real results

“Show me how the Karbach German election model performed on the 2026 elections — specifically the frozen forecasts versus the actual results for each Landtag election and the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus.”

Assessing model methodology before relying on its forecasts

“Before I use the Karbach polls simulation for a political analysis piece, can you fetch its track record so I can see its methodology version, Brier score, and how it compares to a simple 5-poll average baseline?”

Technical details

Endpoint

GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record?utm_source=zero.xyz

When to prefer

Use this endpoint when you need to assess the credibility and historical accuracy of the Karbach German election Monte-Carlo model before relying on its forecasts, or when you need to cite validated model performance metrics (MAE, Brier, CI hit rate) in a political analysis context. Prefer it over raw forecast endpoints when the question is about model quality rather than a specific upcoming election.

Side effects

HTTP 402 if payment header is missing or malformed (x402 micropayment required)
Stale data if the 6-hour update cycle hasn't completed yet
Empty elections_2026 array if no 2026 elections have concluded yet
Network timeout if the API server is temporarily unavailable

Input

Schema · Request body

Field	Type	Description
properties	string

Output

Schema · Response

{
  "type": "json",
  "example": {
    "data": {
      "description": "Forecasts frozen eight days before the election, measured against official results.",
      "summary_2026": {
        "mae": 2.17,
        "slots": 21,
        "sieger": 3,
        "wahlen": 3,
        "im_band": 17
      },
      "elections_2026": [
        {
          "eid": "st-2026",
          "mae": 2.47,
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "name": "Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt",
          "actual": {
            "AfD": 43.8,
            "BSW": 5.3,
            "CDU": 17.2,
            "FDP": 2.6,
            "SPD": 9.3,
            "Linke": 8.6,
            "Grüne": 8.9
          },
          "im_band": 5,
          "parteien": 7,
          "v4_frozen": {
            "AfD": 42.3,
            "BSW": 4.1,
            "CDU": 22.1,
            "FDP": 3.3,
            "SPD": 7.3,
            "Linke": 12,
            "Grüne": 5.3
          },
          "frozen_date": "2026-08-28",
          "sieger_stimmt": true
        },
        {
          "eid": "be-2026",
          "mae": 1.74,
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "name": "Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin",
          "actual": {
            "AfD": 16.3,
            "BSW": 4.7,
            "CDU": 18.8,
            "FDP": 2.5,
            "SPD": 12.1,
            "Linke": 25.7,
            "Grüne": 14.3
          },
          "im_band": 7,
          "parteien": 7,
          "v4_frozen": {
            "AfD": 18,
            "BSW": 3.8,
            "CDU": 19.9,
            "FDP": 3.3,
            "SPD": 12.5,
            "Linke": 20.2,
            "Grüne": 16.1
          },
          "frozen_date": "2026-09-11",
          "sieger_stimmt": true
        }
      ],
      "backtest_34_elections": {
        "mae": 1.27,
        "brier": 0.0711,
        "ci95_hit": 96.9,
        "n_wahlen": 34,
        "updated_at": "2026-10-18 04:30:24",
        "methodology": "v4.16 — punkt=weighted-poll-avg-fenster5 (CLR-sim nur fuer verteilung/CI/sitze/koalitionen; ablation A6/A7 2026-06-10) + per-partei-sigma + party-correlation...",
        "winner_total": 34,
        "winner_correct": 31,
        "baseline_poll_avg_5_mae": {
          "n": 34,
          "mean_mae": 1.3
        }
      }
    },
    "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
    "model": null,
    "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
    "source": {
      "polls": "dawum.de",
      "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
      "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
      "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
    },
    "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
    "updated_at": "2026-10-18",
    "uncertainty": null
  }
}

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