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polls.karbach.digital – German Federal Election Trend (Monte-Carlo Simulation)
x402
polls.karbach.digital – German Federal Election Trend (Monte-Carlo Simulation) is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).
Returns current Monte-Carlo simulation results for the German federal election (Bundestagswahl), including party vote-share medians, 95% confidence intervals, and parliament-entry probabilities, updated every 6 hours.
Price / call$0.01
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Federal polling average today per party with 95 percent band (Bundestag). Use when asked how German parties currently stand nationally. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.
Output
A JSON object containing an array of German political parties each with their median vote share, poll average, 95% confidence interval bounds, and parliament-entry probability (0–100), plus simulation metadata (model version, number of polls used, number of simulations, temporal decay weighting), data source attribution (dawum.de, ODbL 1.0), and a last-updated timestamp. Also includes a notice clarifying this is scenario analysis, not a prediction or voting recommendation.
Example use cases
Tracking AfD polling momentum
“What does the current simulation say about AfD's vote share in the next Bundestagswahl — give me their median, confidence interval, and how likely they are to enter parliament?”
Coalition arithmetic analysis
“Based on the latest German federal election simulation, which parties have 100% parliament-entry probability, and what two-party or three-party coalitions could mathematically form a majority?”
Political newsletter briefing
“Pull the latest Karbach.Digital federal election trend data for me — I need the median poll average and 95% confidence interval for each major party for this week's political briefing.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/federal/trend?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a probabilistic, Monte-Carlo-based forecast for the German federal election (Bundestagswahl) rather than a raw poll average. It is uniquely suited for questions about confidence intervals, parliament-entry probabilities, and coalition arithmetic. Prefer it over generic news APIs or raw polling aggregators when you need calibrated uncertainty quantification (Leave-One-Out validated, MAE ±1.27 pp). Updated every 6 hours, so suitable for near-real-time political monitoring. Not suitable for state-level (Landtag) elections — sibling endpoints exist for those.
Side effects
- Stale data if the 6-hour update cycle is delayed
- No input schema flexibility (GET with no documented query parameters beyond an empty properties object)
- Missing parties if dawum.de source data is incomplete
- Confidence intervals may be wide (e.g. 19.6–40.4 pp for AfD) reflecting genuine poll variance, not model failure
- Out-of-sample calibration holds ~81% (17/21 values), so rare extreme results may fall outside CI
- HTTP errors if the API is unavailable or payment fails via x402 protocol
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"parties": [
{
"ci95": [
19.6,
40.4
],
"name": "AfD",
"party": "AfD",
"median": 28.5,
"poll_average": 28.5,
"entry_probability": 100
},
{
"ci95": [
11.1,
31.4
],
"name": "Union (CDU/CSU)",
"party": "CDU/CSU",
"median": 18.8,
"poll_average": 18.8,
"entry_probability": 100
}
],
"election": "btw-2029"
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": {
"version": "4.16",
"polls_used": 5,
"simulations": 10000,
"point_estimate": "weighted_poll_avg (Fenster 5, temporal_decay_14d + institute_quality)"
},
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"source": {
"polls": "dawum.de",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
},
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"updated_at": "2026-10-17 18:00:09",
"uncertainty": "ci95: range that contains the result with 95 percent probability in the simulation. Out of sample in 2026 the band held 17 of 21 values (81 percent)."
}
}Tags
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