polls.karbach.digital — German Election Simulation by Election ID

x402

polls.karbach.digital — German Election Simulation by Election ID is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns a Monte-Carlo-based election simulation (10,000 scenarios) for a specific German state or federal election, including party vote share distributions, seat projections, coalition probabilities, and recent poll data.

Price / call$0.02

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StatusUnknown

How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

Output

A JSON object containing: election metadata (name, date, region, seat count, seat allocation method), per-party results (poll average, median simulation result, 95% CI for vote share and seats, parliament entry probability), strongest-party probability breakdown, arithmetic coalition majority probabilities, recent individual poll results with institute names, a data quality assessment (score 1–10, poll count, recency), and Monte Carlo model metadata (version, simulation count, weighting method). Updated every 6 hours.

Example use cases

Coalition viability check before election

“For the next Saarland election (sl-2027), what's the probability that CDU and SPD together get an arithmetic majority, and what are the seat projections for each party with confidence intervals?”

Tracking dominant party ahead of Bundestagswahl

“Which party is most likely to come out as the strongest party in the upcoming Bundestagswahl? Give me the probability breakdown and current poll averages for all major parties.”

Monitoring data quality for thin-poll election

“How reliable is the current simulation for the Saarland 2027 election — how many polls have been used, how old is the latest one, and what's the data quality score?”

Technical details

Endpoint

GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/elections/%7Beid%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz

When to prefer

Use this endpoint when you need probabilistic, simulation-backed election projections for a specific German state or federal election rather than raw poll averages. It is the right choice when you need seat distributions, coalition arithmetic probabilities, or confidence intervals — not just headline numbers. Prefer it over raw polling aggregators when the user wants scenario analysis or wants to understand electoral uncertainty quantitatively.

Side effects

Unknown or unsupported election ID returns an error or empty data
Election ID with no or very few polls yields a low data quality score and wide confidence intervals
Stale data if no polls have been published recently (latest_poll_days_ago may be high)
API may return 402 Payment Required if USDC payment via x402 is not properly attached
Malformed election ID (e.g. wrong format) may result in a 404 or validation error

Input

Schema · Request body

Field	Type	Description
properties	string

Output

Schema · Response

{
  "type": "json",
  "example": {
    "data": {
      "parties": [
        {
          "ci95": [
            20.9,
            35.3
          ],
          "name": "SPD",
          "party": "SPD",
          "seats": {
            "ci95": [
              11,
              20
            ],
            "mean": 15.3,
            "median": 15
          },
          "median": 27,
          "poll_average": 27,
          "entry_probability": 100
        },
        {
          "ci95": [
            18.7,
            33.8
          ],
          "name": "CDU",
          "party": "CDU",
          "seats": {
            "ci95": [
              10,
              19
            ],
            "mean": 14.2,
            "median": 14
          },
          "median": 25,
          "poll_average": 25,
          "entry_probability": 100
        }
      ],
      "election": {
        "id": "sl-2027",
        "date": "2027-04-18",
        "name": "Landtagswahl Saarland",
        "seats": 51,
        "region": "SL",
        "days_until": 181,
        "seat_method": "dhondt"
      },
      "data_quality": {
        "label": "grob",
        "inputs": {
          "n_polls": 5,
          "mean_sigma_pp": 3.06,
          "days_to_election": 181,
          "latest_poll_days_ago": 319
        },
        "score_1_to_10": 3
      },
      "recent_polls": [
        {
          "date": "2025-12-03",
          "results": {
            "AfD": 23,
            "BSW": 3,
            "CDU": 25,
            "SPD": 27,
            "Linke": 7,
            "Grüne": 7
          },
          "institute": "Infratest dimap"
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-02",
          "results": {
            "AfD": 17,
            "BSW": 4,
            "CDU": 27,
            "FDP": 3,
            "SPD": 30,
            "Linke": 8,
            "Grüne": 6
          },
          "institute": "Infratest dimap"
        }
      ],
      "arithmetic_majorities": [
        {
          "coalition": "GroKo (CDU+SPD)",
          "probability_arithmetic_majority": 91.7
        },
        {
          "coalition": "CDU+AfD",
          "probability_arithmetic_majority": 71.6
        }
      ],
      "strongest_party_probability": {
        "AfD": 16.4,
        "CDU": 30.2,
        "SPD": 53.3
      }
    },
    "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
    "model": {
      "version": "4.16",
      "polls_used": 5,
      "simulations": 10000,
      "point_estimate": "weighted_poll_avg (Fenster 5, temporal_decay_14d + institute_quality)"
    },
    "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
    "source": {
      "polls": "dawum.de",
      "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
      "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
      "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
    },
    "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
    "updated_at": "2026-10-18 00:00:02",
    "uncertainty": "ci95 per party from Monte Carlo simulation; seats with ci95; data_quality shows how thin the poll base is."
  }
}

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