polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Simulation

x402

polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns Monte-Carlo-based election scenario projections (10,000 simulations) for a specific German Bundestag constituency, including party vote shares with confidence intervals, socioeconomic structure data, and 2025 actual results.

Price / call$0.02

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StatusUnknown

How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

Output

A JSON object containing: constituency name, state abbreviation, current MPs, socioeconomic structure (unemployment rate, GDP per capita, Abitur share, population density, area, car ownership, age distribution, foreign national share, income), swing type classification, scenario_2029 with Erststimme and Zweitstimme percentage projections plus 90%+ confidence intervals (ci_low/ci_high) for all major parties (AfD, BSW, FDP, SPD, Linke, Grüne, CDU/CSU), actual 2025 election results, list of similar constituencies with similarity scores, data source attribution, and last-updated timestamp.

Example use cases

Constituency forecast for campaign planning

“I'm researching the 2029 Bundestag election — can you pull the Monte Carlo vote share projections for constituency 200 (Hamburg-Eimsbüttel), with the confidence intervals for SPD, CDU, and AfD on both Erst- and Zweitstimme?”

Socioeconomic profile of a swing district

“Give me the socioeconomic structure data for Wahlkreis 61 — things like unemployment rate, income per capita, population density, and which similar constituencies it's compared to.”

Compare actual 2025 results vs 2029 forecast

“For constituency 299 Homburg, show me the official 2025 Bundestagswahl results alongside the current 2029 simulation projections so I can see how much the party standings are expected to shift.”

Technical details

Endpoint

GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/%7Bnr%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz

When to prefer

Choose this endpoint when you need constituency-level (Wahlkreis) granularity for German Bundestag election forecasts, with probabilistic uncertainty quantification (confidence intervals from 10,000 Monte Carlo runs). It is superior to national-level poll aggregators when the user cares about a specific district's direct mandate race (Erststimme) or wants socioeconomic context alongside electoral projections. Calibrated against 34 historical elections (MAE ±1.27pp), making it suitable for serious political analysis, journalism, or campaign research.

Side effects

Invalid or out-of-range constituency number returns an error (valid range: 1–299 for Bundestag)
Constituency number passed as string vs integer may cause parsing issues
Truncated or incomplete response if upstream polling data (dawum.de) is stale
Data updated every 6 hours — very recent polling shifts may not yet be reflected
Payment failure (x402 protocol) results in 402 response and no data returned

Input

Schema · Request body

Field	Type	Description
properties	string

Output

Schema · Response

{
  "type": "json",
  "example": {
    "data": {
      "name": "Homburg",
      "state": "SL",
      "members": [
        {
          "name": "Esra Limbacher",
          "party": "SPD"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael „Moses“ Arndt",
          "party": "Die Linke"
        }
      ],
      "structure": {
        "land": "Saarland",
        "wk_nr": 299,
        "wk_name": "Homburg",
        "alo_quote": 6.6,
        "bip_je_ew": 39444,
        "abitur_pct": 32.7,
        "bev_dichte": 444.8,
        "flaeche_km2": 550.2,
        "pkw_je_1000": 661.6,
        "alter_u18_pct": 15.7,
        "auslaender_pct": 13.9,
        "alter_60_74_pct": 22.2,
        "einkommen_je_ew": 23126,
        "alo_quote_frauen": 5.9
      },
      "swing_type": "regional",
      "constituency": 299,
      "scenario_2029": {
        "erst": {
          "AfD": {
            "pct": 31.2,
            "ci_low": 26.5,
            "ci_high": 35.8
          },
          "BSW": {
            "pct": 0,
            "ci_low": 0,
            "ci_high": 1
          },
          "FDP": {
            "pct": 3.3,
            "ci_low": 1.9,
            "ci_high": 4.7
          },
          "SPD": {
            "pct": 27.4,
            "ci_low": 23.2,
            "ci_high": 31.7
          },
          "Linke": {
            "pct": 7.9,
            "ci_low": 6,
            "ci_high": 9.8
          },
          "Grüne": {
            "pct": 5.9,
            "ci_low": 4.2,
            "ci_high": 7.6
          },
          "CDU/CSU": {
            "pct": 21.2,
            "ci_low": 17.7,
            "ci_high": 24.7
          }
        },
        "zweit": {
          "AfD": {
            "pct": 32.1,
            "ci_low": 27.3,
            "ci_high": 36.9
          },
          "BSW": {
            "pct": 4.1,
            "ci_low": 2.6,
            "ci_high": 5.6
          },
          "FDP": {
            "pct": 4,
            "ci_low": 2.5,
            "ci_high": 5.5
          },
          "SPD": {
            "pct": 18.3,
            "ci_low": 15.2,
            "ci_high": 21.4
          },
          "Linke": {
            "pct": 8.6,
            "ci_low": 6.6,
            "ci_high": 10.6
          },
          "Grüne": {
            "pct": 9,
            "ci_low": 7,
            "ci_high": 11
          },
          "CDU/CSU": {
            "pct": 16.9,
            "ci_low": 13.9,
            "ci_high": 19.9
          }
        }
      },
      "result_btw2025": {
        "erst": {},
        "zweit": {
          "AfD": 23.7,
          "BSW": 5.8,
          "FDP": 4.2,
          "SPD": 22,
          "Linke": 6.7,
          "Grüne": 6.6,
          "CDU/CSU": 26.1
        }
      },
      "similar_constituencies": [
        {
          "name": "St. Wendel",
          "wk_nr": 298,
          "bundesland": "SL",
          "similarity": 0.982
        },
        {
          "name": "Saarlouis",
          "wk_nr": 297,
          "bundesland": "SL",
          "similarity": 0.978
        }
      ]
    },
    "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
    "model": null,
    "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
    "source": {
      "polls": "dawum.de",
      "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
      "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
      "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
    },
    "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
    "updated_at": "2026-10-18T15:28:17.464793",
    "uncertainty": "scenario_2029 projects the federal trend onto the constituency (uniform swing with corrections)."
  }
}

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