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x402-factory Government Shutdown This Quarter Probability
x402
x402-factory Government Shutdown This Quarter Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Returns live aggregated prediction-market probability for a US government shutdown occurring this quarter, sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.
Output
Returns a JSON object with the aggregated cross-venue probability (e.g. 0.2573), per-venue breakdowns (Kalshi and Polymarket) including implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score, plus the divergence between venues, 1h price movement, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, and metadata including data freshness and source list.
Example use cases
Real-time political risk briefing
“What's the live prediction market probability that the US government shuts down this quarter? Give me the Kalshi and Polymarket numbers separately and tell me how much they disagree.”
Macro risk signal for portfolio hedging
“I need to know whether prediction markets are pricing in a meaningful chance of a US government shutdown this quarter — pull the latest odds so I can factor it into my fixed income positions.”
Automated news event monitoring
“Has the probability of a government shutdown this quarter moved significantly in the last hour? I want to know if there's been any notable shift in the prediction market consensus.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/government-shutdown-this-quarterWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a stable, evergreen URL that always points to the current quarter's US government shutdown prediction market, aggregating cross-venue consensus from both Kalshi and Polymarket in one call. Prefer it over scraping individual exchanges directly, or over building your own aggregation — it handles venue normalization, divergence computation, and rolling slug resolution automatically. Best when you need a quick, low-cost ($0.02 USDC) machine-readable signal for political risk monitoring, macro research, or automated alerting.
Side effects
- Payment not included: returns HTTP 402 with USDC payment requirements; caller must retry with X-PAYMENT header
- Insufficient liquidity on underlying markets: may return lower liquidity_score values or stale data
- Market not yet created for next quarter: slug may roll over and return a different contract than expected
- Network or provider outage: upstream Kalshi/Polymarket data unavailable, may return error or stale snapshot
- Invalid or expired payment: 402 rejection even if header is present
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "government-shutdown-october-2026",
"topic": "government-shutdown-this-quarter",
"category": "politics",
"question": "Will there be a US government shutdown at the October 2026 funding deadline?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"implied_p": 0.2628,
"market_id": "KXGOVERNMENTSHUT",
"volume_24h_usd": 36151.19,
"liquidity_score": 0.868
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.2514,
"market_id": "government-shutdown-october-2026",
"volume_24h_usd": 58576.31,
"liquidity_score": 0.862
}
],
"divergence": 0.0114,
"probability": 0.2573,
"current_slug": "government-shutdown-october-2026",
"last_move_1h": -0.0002,
"topic_question": "Will there be a US government shutdown this quarter?",
"resolution_date": "2026-10-01",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2026-10-01",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES on a lapse in appropriations beginning October 1, 2026."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.government-shutdown-this-quarter",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/government-shutdown-this-quarter",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.088Z"
}
}
}Tags
x402
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