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x402-factory US Recession Probability (Evergreen)
x402
x402-factory US Recession Probability (Evergreen) is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-29).
Returns the live prediction-market probability that the NBER will declare a US recession by end of the current/next year, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Live probability: Will the US enter a recession this year? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will the US enter a recession this year? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.
Output
A JSON object containing: the aggregate recession probability (e.g. 0.1658), per-venue breakdown with implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score for each market (Polymarket, Kalshi), the 1-hour price move, resolution date (e.g. 2026-12-31), resolution criteria summary (NBER announcement), and metadata including data freshness (realtime), sources, and a docs link.
Example use cases
Recession risk briefing for portfolio manager
“What's the current market-implied probability of a US recession this year? Pull the latest odds from prediction markets including any movement in the last hour.”
Economic indicator dashboard update
“Update my macro dashboard with today's recession probability from prediction markets — I need the implied probability, liquidity score, and 24-hour volume.”
Alert on recession odds spike
“Has the probability of the NBER declaring a recession this year moved significantly? Check the current prediction market odds and tell me if there's been a notable shift recently.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/us-recession-this-year?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a single, real-time, aggregated probability of a US recession from prediction markets (Polymarket + Kalshi) without building your own market-scraping pipeline. It is especially useful for macro dashboards, economic risk models, or agent workflows that need a machine-readable recession signal updated in real time. Prefer this over raw exchange APIs when you want a normalized, cross-venue aggregate at low per-call cost ($0.02 USDC).
Side effects
- 402 Payment Required if X-PAYMENT header is missing or insufficient — response body contains USDC/Base payment requirements
- Stale or unavailable market data if upstream venues (Polymarket, Kalshi) are experiencing outages
- Network timeout if the aggregation layer is slow
- Invalid or malformed payment header returns 402 with error details
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "nber-declares-recession-2026-12",
"topic": "us-recession-this-year",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the NBER declare a US recession by end of 2026?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.1658,
"market_id": "nber-declares-recession-2026-12",
"volume_24h_usd": 180865.01,
"liquidity_score": 0.941
}
],
"divergence": 0,
"probability": 0.1658,
"current_slug": "nber-declares-recession-2026-12",
"last_move_1h": -0.002,
"topic_question": "Will the US enter a recession this year?",
"resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES on an NBER business-cycle dating committee announcement in 2026."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.us-recession-this-year",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/us-recession-this-year",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.100Z"
}
}
}Tags
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