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x402-factory Blended Prediction Market Probability
x402
x402-factory Blended Prediction Market Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).
Returns a liquidity-weighted blended probability for a canonical prediction market slug across Kalshi and Polymarket, with per-venue breakdowns, cross-venue divergence, and 1-hour price move.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Blended event probability across Kalshi and Polymarket for one market — Liquidity-weighted blend of venue implied probabilities for a canonical market slug, with per-venue detail, cross-venue divergence, and the last 1h move. Resolved markets return 410 RESOLVED with the outcome. Find slugs via /v1/probability/search.
Output
Returns a JSON object with: the canonical question text, a blended liquidity-weighted probability (0-1), an array of per-venue records (venue name, market ID, implied probability, 24h USD volume, liquidity score), the cross-venue divergence (0-1), the last 1-hour price move, resolution date, and a summary of resolution criteria. Resolved markets return HTTP 410 GONE with the outcome.
Example use cases
Example prompt
“What's the current blended probability for the prediction market slug 'us-recession-2025' — show me how Kalshi and Polymarket compare and whether it's moved in the last hour?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slugWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a single authoritative probability estimate for a named prediction market event, especially when you want cross-venue consensus or want to detect arbitrage divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket. Prefer this over venue-specific endpoints when you want a liquidity-weighted blended view rather than raw per-venue odds. Use it after finding a slug via /v1/probability/search.
Side effects
- 410 RESOLVED — market has already resolved, response includes the outcome
- 404 Not Found — slug does not match any known market; use /v1/probability/search to find valid slugs
- 402 Payment Required — x402 micropayment not provided or failed
- 400 Bad Request — slug format invalid (must match ^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$)
- 503/timeout — upstream venue APIs (Kalshi or Polymarket) temporarily unavailable
- Single-venue response — only one venue has data for this slug, blend is one-sided
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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