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x402-factory US Presidential Election Winner Party Probability
x402
x402-factory US Presidential Election Winner Party Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).
Returns the live aggregated probability of which party wins the next US presidential election, auto-rolling to the current market instance with metadata about when it rolls forward.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Live probability: Which party wins the next US presidential election? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Which party wins the next US presidential election? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.
Output
Returns a JSON object with: aggregated probability (0–1) for the winning party, per-venue breakdown from Kalshi and Polymarket (implied probability, 24h volume, liquidity score), divergence between venues, 1-hour probability move, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, the current market slug, and the date/time at which the evergreen URL will roll forward to the next election cycle.
Example use cases
Real-time election odds dashboard
“Pull the latest aggregated probability for which party wins the next US presidential election from prediction markets, and tell me if there have been any notable moves in the last hour.”
Political risk briefing for analysts
“What is the current market-implied probability of a Republican vs Democratic win in the next US presidential election, and how do Kalshi and Polymarket compare on this question?”
Automated election odds monitoring
“Check the current probability for which party wins the next US presidential election and alert me if it has shifted significantly, including the divergence between venues and when this market rolls to the next cycle.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/presidential-election-winner-partyWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a stable, evergreen URL for US presidential election party-win probability that always points to the current active market cycle without needing to track changing slugs manually. Prefer this over direct venue APIs when you want a cross-venue aggregated probability with divergence metrics in a single call. Ideal for dashboards, monitoring agents, and briefing pipelines that must always reflect the 'next' election without manual reconfiguration.
Side effects
- Market temporarily unavailable or no active instance — may return empty or null data
- Venue-level data missing if Kalshi or Polymarket API is down, resulting in partial per_venue array
- High divergence between venues indicating low market agreement — probability may be unreliable
- Resolution already occurred but roll-forward not yet triggered — current_slug may lag
- Payment failure (HTTP 402) if USDC balance is insufficient
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "republican-wins-presidency-2028",
"topic": "presidential-election-winner-party",
"category": "politics",
"question": "Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 US presidential election?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"implied_p": 0.5049,
"market_id": "KXREPUBLICANWINS",
"volume_24h_usd": 694856.63,
"liquidity_score": 1
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.5049,
"market_id": "republican-wins-presidency-2028",
"volume_24h_usd": 532283.98,
"liquidity_score": 0.99
}
],
"divergence": 0,
"probability": 0.5049,
"current_slug": "republican-wins-presidency-2028",
"last_move_1h": -0.0018,
"topic_question": "Which party wins the next US presidential election?",
"resolution_date": "2028-11-07",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2028-11-07",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the Republican nominee wins the 2028 presidential election."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.presidential-election-winner-party",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/presidential-election-winner-party",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.095Z"
}
}
}Tags
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